A clear-eyed view of what's coming: 76 days from Election Day to inauguration
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From Election Day to Inauguration Day, America will confront a treacherous 76 days in transferring power from President Biden to his successor — putting new stress on the political parties, the legal system and the culture.
Why it matters: This has stayed a coin-flip election to the end. We're at the last full day of campaigning after a vicious, exhausting race. But as soon as we know who is president-elect, a new marathon begins.
This high-stakes period will require something that's in short supply these days — patience. As Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen warned last month in a column on a "just-stay-calm" strategy, crucial votes may come slowly. But that doesn't mean they're not on the level.
- Sluggish vote counts could fuel distrust in the election, spark lawsuits and even civil unrest, and paralyze both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
- So you're going to have to throttle your reactions to every outrage on social media — and there'll be plenty. But lots of it will be plain false. Lots of it will be twisted to manipulate your emotions.
The big picture: "I felt the same way two years ago, two months ago, two hours ago," VandeHei told Manu Raju Sunday on CNN's "Inside Politics" when asked about the outlook in the seven swing states. "Nobody has a clue."
- "It has been within the margin of error in those seven states, literally for two years," VandeHei added. "Almost nothing has moved the needle collectively in those seven states or individually in any one of those single states. ... We have been a 50/50 country since 2000."
What's next: Here are three key dates to watch, starting 36 days after Election Day, as laid out by TD Cowen's Chris Krueger in his "DC Download." All could be flashpoints if the presidential fight drags on:
- Dec. 11: This is a new national deadline for governors to certify the results of the presidential election and submit their slate of electors. "This year, because of all the lawsuits disputing the results of the 2020 election, there are new procedures in place to expedite challenges," writes American University's Amy Dacey, former CEO of the DNC.
- Dec. 17: Electors cast a ballot in state capitols to formally vote for president and VP. Officials in swing states are already preparing for potential disruptions, including unrest ahead of and during these meetings, and possible submission of alternate slates of electors, NBC News reports.
- Jan. 6, 2025: Members of the 119th Congress, three days after being sworn in, will count Electoral College ballots under the modernized Electoral Count Act, updated in 2022, to try to ward off another insurrection. Objections are still possible, but harder. The revised law makes plain that the vice president is there only to announce the results as president of the Senate, AP notes.
Between the lines: Much more security will be in place at the Capitol this Jan. 6. The Department of Homeland Security has designated the "Counting and Certification of Electoral Votes" as a National Special Security Event, like the inauguration, the national conventions and the Super Bowl.
The bottom line: There's more turmoil — and testing — ahead.
- Go deeper: How to stay calm as votes are counted.
