Cook Political Report: Harris effect sees North Carolina move to toss-up

• The latest polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics have Harris and Trump effectively tied, as Walter noted in her analysis.

Driving the news: "Trump hasn't lost political ground since July; instead it's that Harris has improved" on President Biden's vote share, wrote Walter, who noted the Cook Political Report Swing State Project survey in May showed Biden seven points behind Trump (41% to 48%).

• "The most recent Swing State Project poll taken in late July/early August, found Trump taking a similar share of the vote (47%), but Harris had improved on Biden's share of the vote by seven points and sat at 48%," Walter said.
• "Her success was driven by increasing her margins with Democrats (+13), Black voters (+4) and independent voters (+13)."

Zoom out: Several recent polls have placed Harris ahead of Trump or tied with her Republican rival, but GOP vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) called these findings "fake."

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Editor's note: This article has been updated with further context.