"Fake polls": Vance downplays Harris rise
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Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) speaks at a campaign rally at VFW Post 92 on August 15, 2024 in New Kensington, Pennsylvania. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
GOP vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) dismissed recent polling that shows Vice President Kamala Harris edging ahead of former President Trump, contending the "media uses fake polls" to hurt Republicans.
Why it matters: The polls aren't always accurate, but they certainly aren't fake. Nearly every major pollster has shown Harris surging, though the race remains very close in the key swing states.
Driving the news: Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, according to new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos polling.
- Among likely voters, Harris holds a 6-point lead, 51% to 45%.
- Independents swung from Trump +4 against President Biden in July to Harris +11 over Trump in August. One big reason: Democratic-leaning independents shifted from 77% supporting Biden to 92% backing Harris.
- CBS/YouGov polling also released on Sunday shows Harris leading Trump by a 3-point margin nationally. CBS' analysis shows the two in a dead heat across the key battleground states.
What they're saying: "ABC/Washington Post was a wildly inaccurate pollster in the summer of 2020," Vance said in an interview on "Fox News Sunday," adding he feels "extremely confident" the campaign will be "in the right place come November."
- He continued: "Consistently, what you've seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters."
- Vance characterized Harris' early edge as a "sugar high," arguing internal campaign data shows she has "leveled off."
- "The Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot," he added. "We're going to win this race; we just have to run through the finish line."
- A Trump campaign spokesperson wouldn't say whether Vance believes pollsters are intentionally releasing inaccurate polls, but pointed Axios to a memo from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio showing "corrected" numbers which account for the gap between the 2020 polls and final results. Fabrizio argues that the polls currently show a "phony lead" for Harris.
Reality check: Polling in 2016 and 2020 did often underestimate Trump nationally and in key battleground states.
- The ABC/WaPo poll showed Biden leading Trump by double digits throughout the summer of 2020, and up by 12 points just three weeks before election day. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points.
- Those polling fumbles have rocked public confidence in pre-election data, Axios' Ivana Saric reported.
State of play: A recent report from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report showed Harris snatching the lead in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — states where Biden had been trailing before passing the baton to Harris.
Between the lines: Arguing "fake news" is not a new strategy for the Trump campaign — but some allies and advisers worry the former president isn't facing up to just how much the race has changed.
Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: Inside Trump's slump
