Behind the Curtain: Trump's "caught on tape" women problem

• A Quinnipiac Poll out this week found a gender gulf among likely voters in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania: Women backed Harris 54% to 41%, while men went for Trump, 49% to 42%. (Overall, Harris was up 48% to 45%.)

This vulnerability for Trump and Vance is driven partly by moments that are caught on tape and impossible to deny:

• Shortly after President Biden's disastrous debate, former President Trump was sitting on a golf cart, casually saying Harris is "so f--king bad." Off camera, The New York Times reported, he was calling her a "bitch."
• Back in 2005, in a moment many thought would end his political career when it leaked just before the 2016 election, Trump was caught by "Access Hollywood" casually explaining that stars can "do anything" with women — "grab 'em by the p---y."

In the eight years between the revelations of the crude, misogynistic moments, Trump has built his popularity around tough-guy masculinity — often punctuated with caustic words for women, including journalists who confront him.

• He's called them "crazy," "unhinged" and "nasty." 

Vance's issue with women is different but equally problematic. He often sounds like a bar scene in '60s-era "Mad Men."

• In a 2020 podcast clip that surfaced this week, Vance was discussing the part his mother-in-law, a biology professor, played in raising her grandchild. Vance didn't disagree when the host asserted: "That's the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female, in theory." Campaign spokeswoman Taylor Van Kirk said Vance "does not agree with what the host said. JD reacted to the first part of the host's sentence, assuming he was going to say: 'that's the whole purpose of spending time with grandparents.'" Anthony Scaramucci, a former Trump official who's now a critic, said on CNN that this particular attack is unfair and that Vance "gets a pass on that one."
• Confronted about his 2021 reference to the American leadership class as dominated by "a bunch of childless cat ladies," Vance told Megyn Kelly: "Obviously, it was a sarcastic comment. I've got nothing against cats." His wife, Usha Vance, dismissed it as a "quip."
• Democrats seized on comments about divorce Vance made in 2021 at a Christian high school in Newport Beach, Calif. "This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that, like: Well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy," Vance said. "And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that's going to make people happier in the long term. ... [M]aybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I'm skeptical. But it really didn't work out for the kids of those marriages." In response to criticism, Vance told Vice in a statement in 2022: "In my life, I have seen siblings, wives, daughters, and myself abused by men. It's disgusting for you to argue that I was defending those men."

Aides say Vance is bolstered by the powerful personal story of Usha, who was raised by Indian immigrants and went on to Yale Law, clerked for Supreme Court Justice John Roberts, and was a corporate litigator for a top firm until her husband was picked as running-mate.

• Vance allies say his memoir about growing up in Appalachia, "Hillbilly Elegy," appeals to suburban women, many of whom are hearing his story for the first time. The book returned to No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list after Trump picked him, and is now on the list for the 77th week. The movie became a top stream on Netflix.

Vance, with his wife at his side, told NBC aboard his campaign plane that he "was in a lot of ways raised by strong women, from my grandmother to my mom to my aunt to my sister, and everybody played a big role."

• "Certainly I see a lot of the struggles that are going on in the country through the eyes of a single mom, because I was raised in part by a single mom or a grandmother," Vance added.

Between the lines: Trump won against a woman, Hillary Clinton, the first time he ran. Then he lost to a man, Joe Biden. Now he once again faces a woman in an election defined by a massive gender gap and abortion politics.

• Trump advisers are acutely attuned to this vulnerability. They worry that in a debate, he'll come off as paternalistic, racist or misogynistic if he doesn't control his worst impulses.
• They know they can't win simply by running up the score with men. They need swing female voters, many of whom like his policies but loathe his style, to back him.

What to watch: A campaign source told us Harris and running-mate Tim Walz will continue to respond to such moments not in a "pearl-clutching/offended way" — but instead by radiating warmth ("joyful warrior") and humor ("weird," "mind your own damn business!"), and by letting "their cringey-ness cause self-sabotage."

• Swing states Nevada and Arizona have abortion-related ballot measures, which have the potential to juice turnout among independent women.

The other side: Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign communications director, said Trump "has made record gains across the board with every voting group," and "has an undefeated debate record and he will prosecute the case against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz."