Trump campaign plays defense amid Harris honeymoon

State of play: A New York Times/Siena College poll out Thursday found Harris trailing Trump by just 1 percentage point among likely voters nationwide, closing the 6-point gap Trump recorded over President Biden in early July.

• "The Democrats and the [mainstream media] will try and tout these polls as proof that the race has changed. But the fundamentals of the race stay the same," Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a memo this week.
• "Before long, Harris' 'honeymoon' will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden's partner and co-pilot," he predicted, citing the administration's record on the border and inflation.

The big picture: After weeks of division and despair over Biden's candidacy, the Democratic Party's rapid consolidation behind Harris cleared the way for an election sprint unprecedented in U.S. history.

• Between Sunday and Tuesday, the Harris campaign says it raised a staggering $126 million — much of it from small-donor donors contributing for the first time — and signed up more than 100,000 volunteers.
• Democratic mega-donors who had turned their backs on Biden were suddenly energized, rushing to host glitzy fundraisers and write massive checks for Harris and other Democratic causes.
• "It was the first time we've had an Obama-like moment, a feeling where it was pure and it was good, and people were doing things bigger than themselves," Silicon Valley fundraiser Steve Spinner told the New York Times.

Zoom in: Harris' public appearances this week have reflected that enthusiasm.

• In Wisconsin on Tuesday, she held the campaign's biggest rally ever, according to campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon.
• In Indianapolis on Wednesday, Harris delivered a speech to a historically Black sorority as part of a push to galvanize a demographic long described as the "backbone" of the Democratic Party.
• In Houston on Thursday, Harris' remarks to the American Federation of Teachers were delayed several minutes because of the crowd's incessant cheering.

The other side: Republicans are preparing to blanket the airwaves over the next several weeks in hopes of bringing the Harris honeymoon to an abrupt halt.

• Unpopular policies that Harris embraced in her failed 2020 presidential campaign — which had high expectations but imploded before the first primary — already are being featured in Republican attack ads.
• Democrats are also closely watching how she performs in her first major TV interview, seeking to avoid a repeat of her widely criticized border sit-down with NBC's Lester Holt in June 2021.

• Polling suggests Harris faces an uphill climb in swing states, where she'll need to broaden her appeal beyond the Democratic base — such as with white working-class voters in the Rust Belt — to win the election.
• "While the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can't change who she is or what she's done," Fabrizio wrote in his memo.

What to watch: With the election about 100 days away — and the new-look Democratic campaign less than a week old — Harris allies see ample opportunities for sustained momentum.

• Interest has surged around her search for a running mate, and the Democratic convention kicking off on Aug. 19 is expected to be a festive celebration of the party's new leaders and a warm farewell to Biden.
• "Vice President Harris is taking nothing for granted and focused on earning the votes and trust of the American people," Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer said in a statement.

The bottom line: While Trumpworld was caught off guard by Biden's sudden withdrawal, allies dismiss the notion that the former president's campaign "peaked" too early.

• "This is not in the bag," Donald Trump Jr. told Axios on the sidelines of the GOP convention last week, when Biden was still the Democratic candidate.
• "We have to keep our foot on the gas every second of the day."