What Harris' VP choice will tell us about her vision of victory
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Vice President Harris campaigns with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (L). Photo: Ryan Collerd/AFP via Getty
Vice President Kamala Harris' choice of a running mate will signal what she believes is her best path to winning — whether that's reflected in the running mate's home state, their political identity, or both.
The big picture: The front-runners so far are mostly moderate white men from swing states.
The short list
- Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina are all near the top of the short list.
- Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker also are reportedly being vetted.
State of play: Biden trailed Trump in all seven key swing states when he left the race. His clearest path to 270 electoral votes was to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The case for Shapiro
Every path to 270 is quite a bit rockier without winning Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes.
- That's why the Republicans intend to park their VP candidate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), in the Keystone State.
- And that's a big part of why Shapiro — who carried Pennsylvania by 15 points in 2022 and holds a +26 net approval rating — is seen as a top choice for Harris, in addition to his political talents on camera and in front of a crowd.
Reality check: The idea that a "favorite son" can lock down a key state doesn't necessarily hold up in 2024, Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, tells Axios.
- "But even if all he is bringing to the table is a marginal improvement in Pennsylvania, well, Pennsylvania has been won or lost at the margins since 2016," she said.
The case for Kelly
Kelly, a former astronaut and Navy pilot, won re-election in Arizona by five points in 2022, which was a tough cycle for Democrats.
- He's seen as one of the Democrats' more effective communicators on immigration, an issue that could be Harris' Achilles heel.
- Kelly's resume and the party's positioning him as an American hero may also appeal to independents beyond the Sun Belt.
The case for Cooper
North Carolina looks like a trickier target for Democrats, Walter says. It's the only one of the seven key swing states Biden lost in 2020, and the one where Biden faced the biggest polling deficit against Trump.
- But Cooper, a two-term governor who has a personal relationship with Harris dating back to when they were both state attorneys general, remains popular there.
- Red-state governors like Cooper or Kentucky's Andy Beshear — who has also been floated as a VP hopeful — would bring a track record of winning over the types of swing voters Harris will need to defeat Trump, Walter said.
The case for Whitmer
Like Shapiro, Whitmer has clear appeal in the Rust Belt. She also has the biggest national profile of any of the top contenders, after speculation she could have replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
- But she says she's not interested in the VP slot, and Harris might see a two-woman ticket as a political risk.
- Pritzker and Walz hail from safer states in the Midwest, but they'd surely feel at home campaigning in the nearby swing states.
The bottom line
Biden "was really struggling to reconstitute his 2020 coalition, especially with young people and voters of color," Walter said.
- "If Harris can get back the base, then she puts Nevada, Arizona and Georgia at least back in in play." Those are among the 10 states with the highest non-white populations.
- It's possible Harris will start in a weaker position in the Rust Belt than Biden, whose Scranton roots were a campaign staple.
- She could prioritize a candidate who solidifies the ticket's Rust Belt bona fides or one who helps expand the map to the more diverse southern and southwestern swing states.
