How a Kamala Harris nomination could shift Arizona electoral math
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Vice President Kamala Harris in Tucson earlier this year. Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images
Political strategists and pollsters are scrambling to determine whether Vice President Kamala Harris' potential nomination will win over Arizona swing voters who had soured on President Biden.
The big picture: Within hours of Harris announcing her presidential bid, she became an internet sensation, broke grassroots fundraising records and won the support of virtually every major Democratic Party member.
- Harris appears to be invigorating voters who had checked out of the race, but it's uncertain whether she'll win over Arizona's moderate and independent voters who helped usher Biden to victory in 2020.
Why it matters: Arizona is expected to be one of just six swing states that will decide the outcome of 2024's presidential election.
Zoom in: Democratic strategist Tony Cani, who served as the Biden campaign's Arizona deputy director in 2020, tells Axios that Harris' likely nomination "totally changes the calculation."
- Biden struggled in polling because of "double haters" — people who disliked both Biden and former President Trump — and disillusioned Democrats, Cani says. Harris' nomination would eliminate both issues, he said.
- Cani also notes that recent Democratic victories in Arizona have been extremely tight, relying upon high turnout among younger voters and people of color.
- He says Harris can re-engage voters who were on the fence with Biden.
The other side: Local Republican strategist Marcus Dell'Artino tells us he feels even more confident Trump will win if Harris is his opponent.
- Dell'Artino says Harris will still be linked to Biden's unpopularity because of her proximity to the president for the past four years. She's also historically been more progressive than Biden, and that isn't likely to appeal to moderates.
- "They gained energy and enthusiasm by making this change but certainly did not help themselves with the true independent or undecided voter," Dell'Artino says.
What we're watching: Harris has spent much of her vice presidency out of the spotlight, so many voters are getting a chance to meet her for the first time as she launches her presidential campaign.
- "This introduction to her as a person over the next two weeks is going to dramatically change things," Cani says.
The bottom line: "Could a different Democrat, Vice President Harris, somebody else, do better in a state like Arizona than Joe Biden? It's hard to imagine another Democrat not at least having a chance to do better," Siena College pollster Don Levy told the Arizona Republic.