The inescapable abortion campaign
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Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
It's like clockwork: Each time Republicans appear to be building political momentum, America is reminded of the GOP's gaping — and still unresolved — vulnerabilities on abortion rights.
Why it matters: The cascade of new restrictions and legal challenges triggered by the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade will guarantee the abortion debate remains salient throughout the 2024 campaign.
Take the past few days alone: The story of Kate Cox, a woman blocked from getting an abortion by the Texas Supreme Court after she discovered her fetus had a fatal genetic disorder, has generated national attention.
- Cox left the state to obtain an abortion after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton threatened legal action — "including first-degree felony prosecutions" — against any doctor who performed the procedure.
- The case has forced Texas to reckon with the human consequences of its near-total abortion ban: Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and other skittish Republicans have pointedly refused to weigh in.
- Cruz is running for re-election next year, and his seat is viewed as one of the only potential — though long-shot — pickup opportunities for Democrats on an otherwise difficult Senate map.
Zoom out: The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday agreed to review an appeals court decision that curtailed access to the abortion pill mifepristone — setting the stage for another major abortion case that's already causing heartburn for vulnerable House Republicans.
- In Florida, activists are close to gathering enough signatures to get a referendum on next year's ballot enshrining access to abortion in the state's constitution.
- The effort is part of a concerted strategy by Democrats to get abortion rights on the ballot in as many states as possible — including in Montana, where the party hopes it will juice turnout for vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
Between the lines: The latest Wall Street Journal poll exposes the deep hole President Biden and Democrats are in on virtually every issue except abortion.
- Voters gave former President Trump double-digit leads over Biden on the economy, inflation, crime, border security, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and physical and mental fitness for office.
- Biden's only double-digit leads over Trump are on abortion, honesty and respect for democracy.
The intrigue: Former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway met with Republicans on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to stress the need for the party's candidates to promote contraception and talk less about restricting abortion — a potential preview of the GOP's 2024 messaging.
What to watch: Expect Cox's and other women's stories to be featured heavily in Democratic campaign ads, especially after Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear romped to re-election in that red state with the help of a viral ad about a 12-year-old girl impregnated by her stepfather.
- "This is to you, Daniel Cameron," Hadley Duvall, now 21, addressed Beshear's opponent. "I'm speaking out because women and girls need to have options. Daniel Cameron would give us none."
- RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, who has criticized her party for its reluctance to address abortion head-on, has cited the ad as a key reason Beshear won while Republicans swept down-ballot races.
