Euro area grew in the fourth quarter

Europe dodged recession at the end of last year, eking out a surprising bit of growth in the final three months of the year despite the energy shock delivered by Russia's war in Ukraine.

Driving the news: The 20-country currency bloc grew by 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared to the same quarter in 2021. Not too bad.

Between the lines: Quarter-on-quarter growth rates, however, have been close to the classic definition of a recession, which is two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions in output. By that metric...

• Q3 GDP was up 0.3%.
• Q4 was up just 0.1%.

What they're saying: "Despite the energy — and subsequent inflation — crisis, the eurozone economy once again defied recession in the fourth quarter, showing incredible resilience. But it was a narrow escape," wrote Bert Colijn, an economist covering the monetary bloc for ING.

Yes, but: The recession may just be delayed, not avoided.

• Large economies like Germany and Italy are starting to contract.
• And confidence is weakening, as consumers are strained by higher costs and corporations expect rates to keep rising to tame inflation.