Nov 27, 2019

Top 4 Democrats way ahead of 2020 rivals in 2 polls, but Warren slips

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders at the Nov. 20 Democratic presidential debate in Atlanta. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Two polls published Tuesday show a clear gap at the top of the Democratic presidential race, with only the four leading candidates achieving double digits. But Sen. Elizabeth Warren's numbers slipped in both.

By the numbers: Former Vice President Joe Biden has retaken the lead in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, with 24% of Democratic and independent voters who lean Democratic backing him. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg jumped 6 points to snatch second place (16%). Warren's numbers fell 50% over the past month to receive 14% support. Sen. Bernie Sanders polled at 13%.

  • Sanders stormed to the lead in the latest New Hampshire Emerson College poll, with the support of 26% voters ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary.
  • Buttigieg placed second with 22% of those polled backing him. Warren and Biden both achieved 14%.

Why it matters: The polls are a blow for Warren, who enjoyed a surge of support to lead several polls in September and October. However, she's faced criticism since introducing her "Medicare for All" plan from progressives and moderate Democrats.

Between the lines: Axios' Neal Rothschild noted that NewsWhip data provided exclusively to Axios this month shows Warren has taken a "beating on social media after claiming middle class Americans won’t pay higher taxes to fund health care coverage fully paid for by taxpayers."

The big picture: In the New Hampshire Emerson College poll, conducted Nov. 22–26, the sample consisted of 1,184 registered voters. The margin of error was ±2.8 percentage points.

  • Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,355 voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points. It includes 574 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points.

Read the full Quinnipiac University poll:

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Editor's note: This piece has been corrected to show that Pete Buttigieg jumped 6 points in the Quinnipiac University poll (not 16).

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Bernie Sanders surges in California primary poll

Bernie Sanders. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has surged in a new California poll at the expense of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey published by the Los Angeles Times on Thursday.

The big picture: Warren's lead in September in the same poll dropped by 7 points to 22%, meaning she is statistically tied with — but nominally behind — Sanders, who sits at 24%. Biden also dipped by 6 points to 14%, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 12%.

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Buttigieg with 9-point lead in new Iowa poll

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Presidential hopeful and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has soared to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 2020 Democratic candidates, released Saturday evening.

The big picture: He's the first choice for 25% of Democratic caucus-goers polled in the latest survey — with a 9-point lead over his closest rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Buttigieg also topped a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, where he's the favored candidate among 22% of those surveyed.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Nov 17, 2019

Bernie Sanders becomes top candidate for college students

Data: College Reaction; Note: *Kamala Harris dropped out Dec. 3, results have a ±3.1 margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Over the last two months, Bernie Sanders has overtaken Elizabeth Warren as the top 2020 Democratic candidate among college students, according to a new College Reaction/Axios poll.

The big picture: Warren's recent decline among college students mirrors polling of the general population, but while Pete Buttigieg has been gaining among all voters during that time, Sanders is the one who's gained the most among students.

Go deeperArrowDec 5, 2019