Mar 21, 2019

A real U.S.-China trade deal is a long way away

Illustration Lazaro Gamio/Axios

President Trump roiled markets yesterday when he said his administration would likely keep tariffs on Chinese goods until he's certain Beijing is fully cooperating with the terms of a trade deal. That could mean years of negotiation, acrimony and tariffs, given the nature of the changes being discussed.

The big picture: A trade agreement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is just one piece of a wide-ranging confrontation between the world's top economies.

Trump has shown that tariffs are his favorite weapon, and he's concurrently pushing a number of international efforts that have thus far been wildly unsuccessful.

  • Trump wants to keep countries from using Huawei equipment in their 5G networks, but has been rebuffed by Britain, Germany, India and the United Arab Emirates, who have all signaled they'll work with the Chinese telecom.
  • European countries have continued to sign onto China's Belt and Road Initiative, with Italy next week expected to become the 17th European nation to do so.

Why it matters: Trump's remarks on Wednesday played to investors' worst fears about how much longer the trade war between the two countries could continue. Stocks fell from their highs of the day — the S&P 500 dropped from above 2,850, which it had touched for the first time since October — after the news.

  • "The markets have priced in the trade-war resolution, so if there's any chance this gets extended, delayed or changed, this causes markets to be jittery," Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, told Bloomberg yesterday.

Remember: China isn't paying the tariffs. U.S. businesses and consumers are. Tariffs are "a consumption tax ... they hurt the economy," as Trump's former economic adviser Gary Cohn pointed out earlier this month.

The bottom line: While it now looks to be on shakier ground, an agreement between the U.S. and China on trade would be just the first step in a much longer negotiation process. NAFTA began as a proposal by Ronald Reagan in 1979 and was signed by President Bill Clinton, so the market is likely in for more surprises and more tariffs in the meantime.

Go deeper: Investors bet on China beyond the trade war

Go deeper

Trump flags travel adversaries for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

President Trump said Saturday night the CDC would issue a "strong" travel advisory" for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and that a "quarantine will not be necessary."

The big picture: With more than 121,000 people infected, the U.S. has the most COVID-19 cases in the world, exceeding China and Italy, per data from Johns Hopkins. A second wave of American cities, including Boston, Detroit, New Orleans and Philadelphia, are reporting influxes of cases.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 5 mins ago - Health

Trump rules out quarantine in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut after pushback

President Trump on the White House grounds on Saturdya. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images

President Trump tweeted Saturday night that he's decided not to introduce quarantine enforcement measures fo New York, New Jersey and parts of Connecticut, but a "strong" travel advisory will be issued for those states.

Why it matters: The president said hours earlier he was considering the move to combat the rise in novel coronavirus cases. But he received pushback, most notably from New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who told CNN it would cause "chaos." "This would be a federal declaration of war on states," Cuomo added.

Go deeper: Updates on coronavirus in the U.S.

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7:30 p.m. ET: 660,706 — Total deaths: 30,652 — Total recoveries: 139,304.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in cases. Total confirmed cases as of 7:30 p.m. ET: 121,478 — Total deaths: 2,026 — Total recoveries: 1,072.
  3. Federal government latest: President Trump is considering a quarantine on New York, parts of New Jersey and Connecticut.
  4. State updates: Alaska is latest state to issue a stay-at-home order — New York is trying to nearly triple its hospital capacity in less than a month and has moved its presidential primary to June 23. Some Midwestern swing voters that supported Trump's handling of the virus less than two weeks ago are now balking at his call for the U.S. to be "opened up" by Easter.
  5. World updates: In Spain, over 1,400 people were confirmed dead between Thursday to Saturday.
  6. 🚀 Space updates: OneWeb filed for bankruptcy amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.
  7. Hollywood: Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have returned to U.S. after being treated for coronavirus.
  8. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk
  9. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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