Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

President Trump came into office in 2017 with big ambitions on health care. But he’ll end this term with a lot less to show.

The big picture: If Trump ends up being a one-term president — and that’s not a prediction, just 1 of the 2 possibilities in 2020 — his health care legacy would be pretty modest.

Where it stands:

  • The administration scrapped its own plan to overhaul drug rebates. Its proposal to tie some drug prices to the prices European countries pay may not be finished by January 2021, leaving it in the hands of whoever wins in 2020.
  • A Democratic successor could stop approving Medicaid work requirements — one of Trump’s most impactful health policies — and perhaps even pressure states to ditch the requirements Trump approved. And that’s assuming the courts don’t put a definitive stop to work requirements first.

On the Affordable Care Act front, both Barack Obama and Trump changed the rules dictating how long consumers can keep short-term insurance plans; another Democrat could probably change them again. Actions like promoting ACA enrollment would be easy to resume.

Yes, but: Price transparency could become an exception — a real and lasting legacy, even from a one-term administration.

  • New rules require drugmakers to list their prices in their TV ads, and the administration has also proposed new price-disclosure rules for hospitals.
  • Those requirements would have to survive lawsuits from their respective industries, but they’re the kind of thing a Democratic administration might not want to reverse.
  • On the other end of the “Yes, but” spectrum is the lawsuit aiming to get the entire ACA struck down. As long as the odds may be, if the Trump administration gets its way, that would certainly count as a health care legacy.

What we’re watching: All of this also helps explain why the White House is so eager to strike a legislative deal on drug prices. Legislation is generally more durable than executive actions, and on health care, the administration needs something that can last.

Go deeper

Updated 48 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 20,092,855 — Total deaths: 736,254 Total recoveries — 12,350,879Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 5,094,565 — Total deaths: 163,465 — Total recoveries: 1,670,755 — Total tests: 62,513,174Map.
  3. Politics: Trump claims he would have not called for Obama to resign over 160,000 virus deathsHouse will not hold votes until Sept. 14 unless stimulus deal is reached.
  4. Business: Richer Americans are more comfortable eating out.
  5. Public health: 5 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — A dual coronavirus and flu threat is set to deliver a winter from hell.
  6. Sports: The cost of kids losing gym class — College football is on the brink.
  7. World: Europe's CDC recommends new restrictions amid "true resurgence in cases."
Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump whisked out of press briefing after shooting outside White House

President Trump was escorted out of a coronavirus press briefing by a Secret Service agent on Monday evening after law enforcement reportedly shot an armed suspect outside of the White House.

What's new: The 51-year-old suspect approached a uniformed Secret Service officer on the corner of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW, near the White House, and said he had a weapon, the agency alleged in a statement late Monday. He "ran aggressively towards the officer, and in a drawing motion, withdrew the object from his clothing."

Updated 4 hours ago - World

Protests in Belarus turn deadly following sham election

Belarus law enforcement officers guard a street during a protest on Monday night. Police in Minsk have fired rubber bullets for a second night against protesters. Photo: Natalia Fedosenko/TASS via Getty Image

Protesters and security forces have been clashing across Belarus overnight in a second night of protests that has left at least one person dead, hundreds injured and thousands arrested.

Why it matters: Sunday’s rigged presidential elections have yielded political uncertainty unlike any seen in Aleksander Lukashenko’s 26-year tenure. After claiming an implausible 80% of the vote, Lukashenko is using every tool in the authoritarian arsenal to maintain his grip on power.