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President Biden signed a gun control executive order on Tuesday with the main goal of strengthening background checks. But the move also highlights the limits of his power on this issue.

Plus, the EPA proposes new limits for cancer-causing chemicals in our drinking water. 

And, a Russian jet collides with a U.S. drone over the Black Sea.

Guests: Axios' Dave Lawler, The Guardian's Abené Clayton, Environmental Consulting & Technology, Inc's Sri Vedachalam.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Suguira. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Biden takes executive action on background checks for guns

EPA moves to limit "forever chemicals" in drinking water

Russian jet collides with U.S. drone over Black Sea

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today!

Today on the show: the EPA proposes new limits for cancer-causing chemicals in our drinking water. Also -  a Russian jet collides with a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. But first, President Biden’s new action on guns – that’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: President Biden yesterday signed an executive order on guns with the main goal of strengthening background checks. But his action also shows the limits of President Biden's power on this issue. Abené Clayton is based not far from where the president was yesterday. She's a reporter in LA with the Guardian's Guns and Lies in America Project, and she's back with a reality check for us on this executive order.

ABENÉ CLAYTON: Hi. Thank you for having me.

NIALA: So the administration says this is as “close to universal background checks as possible” without additional legislation. What does this executive order actually do?

ABENÉ: Well, when it comes to background checks, it's seeking to clarify who counts as a gun seller. Well, clarify is a bit of a loose word. It's really trying to add more qualifications to who counts as a gun dealer and who needs to make sure that no one is a prohibited person before they sell a firearm.

I think the traditional understanding is like you're a, a gun store or an online retailer is someone who absolutely needs to, but from a background check. But for private sales, a lot of those guns, um, fall through the cracks and we don't know where they're being moved to. We don't know who's buying them, who the last person who had it was before it may have been stolen out of a car and used in a shooting. So I think the Biden administration is trying to close those gaps and get as many background checks done as possible.

NIALA: And how should we understand the limits of the executive office when it comes to making changes like this?

ABENÉ: Outside of background checks, a lot of what he has in the executive order relies on the ATF and frontline police officers to implement a lot. You know, he talked about expanding education around red flag laws, and that can only go as far as the people who are supposed to petition for them, right? So he can direct the DOJ and the ATF to clarify who counts as, um, a firearm seller and who counts as someone who needs to perform a background check. But right now, without legislation, it can only go so far. You can advise, you can add new qualifications, but it's really on Congress to make that official.

But a question that I hear when talk to victims' families when I talk to, you know, survivors of community violence, which is, where are all these guns coming from? So I think that's one thing that the executive office can do. It can require a level of transparency that we don't usually get when it comes to finding out exactly where “crime guns” are coming from. Are they coming from a single like problem retailer who's been cited multiple times, but is yet to be shut down? Are they being lost in transit? There's a provision there, you know, in the executive actions for the Department of Transportation to get involved, to figure out are guns being stolen off of trains while they're in transit. When it comes to transparency, that's something I think you can see results on a little more quickly, even if it's just informing agendas.

NIALA: So practically speaking, how much of a difference is this executive order going to make?

ABENÉ: When it comes to things like the ballistics and expanding the use of red flag laws. We're gonna have to see how counties and states respond. I'm not sure how much is gonna change this time. But I am more encouraged by the creation of federal protocols for how to support people after incidents of mass violence. I think we know that if mass shooting isn't covered highly in the media at the national level than those victims are less likely to get support, whether it's a GoFundMe or even just the attention and kind of the well wishes that we see come after a mass shooting. So I think that provision in particular has the most potential to have a quicker real world change, because it is less likely to be held up by politics.

NIALA:: Abené Clayton is an LA-based reporter with The Guardian. Thanks so much for being with us.

A Russian jet collides with a U.S. drone 

NIALA: On Tuesday, a strange incident played out over the Black Sea when a Russian jet caused a U.S. drone to go down in international waters.

Just before colliding with the drone's propeller, the jet reportedly dumped fuel on the drone. It was called an "unsafe and unprofessional act" by Air Force General James B. Hecker.  I asked Axios’ Dave Lawler for his take on all of this.

DAVE LAWLER: It's a reminder of the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and escalation as the war in Ukraine drags on. Although in this case, there's likely to be no escalation beyond some stern words for the Russian ambassador who was summoned over the incident by the State Department. There had been intercepts over the Black Sea by Russian aircraft of U.S. aircraft in previous instances. What there hadn't been were collisions like this one. And so what's unknown at this time is whether the Russian pilot did this intentionally under orders or whether this was some sort of accident. One thing to watch, if this was intentional by Russia, is further efforts to make it more difficult for Ukraine's backers to provide it with intelligence and arms. So an unusual incident over the Black Sea and one we don't have all of the answers to yet.

NIALA: That's Axios’ Senior World Reporter, Dave Lawler.

In a moment, the EPA proposes limits on cancer-causing chemicals in our drinking water.

EPA proposes new limits for cancer-causing chemicals in our drinking water

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo.

MICHAEL S. REGAN: I'm so proud to announce that EPA is proposing the first ever national standard to protect communities from PFAS and drinking water.

NIALA: That's EPA administrator Michael Regan in Wilmington, North Carolina yesterday.

The EPA’'s proposal would limit some of a class of toxic chemicals called PFAS, also known as “forever chemicals” that have been linked to serious illnesses like cancer. Environmental Consulting & Technology Inc’s Sri Vedachalam is here with the big picture. Hey, Sri. Welcome to Axios Today.

SRI VEDACHALAM: Hi. Thank you for having me.

NIALA: What do people need to know about PFAS chemicals?

SRI: PFAS, is a class of chemicals which are found in industrial compounds, firefighting foam. Basically these are industrial products that are coming, from outside, you know, our external environment into the water systems. And so the EPA has been kind of working on this issue for many, many years, as you said, we've, we've figured out there are health complications with these compounds.

We've seen the chemicals show up in the water systems across the country. I think this week there was a study that looked at toilet paper across the world and, and you saw them in every sample that they tested. So these are called forever chemicals, they don't break down. It takes a long time, but they're just found everywhere, you know, not just drinking water. They're in our food, they're in our soil, the air we breathe. It's essentially a part of our community now.

NIALA: So a bunch of states, including Michigan, have already imposed PFAS drinking water limits. How does a federal mandate of this affect communities across the country?

SRI: So some states, as you said, have limits, but majority of the states in the U.S. do not have. So these are new regulations that were not there before. EPA has had a health advisory in the past, which was simply, a guidance, not an actual requirement. And so now moving forward, if this gets implemented, this would be an actual regulation. Just like it has for lead and arsenic and some of the other compounds.

SRI: They've been linked to various types of cancers. A lot of health issues have been attributed to these chemicals. I should say, we have lots of contaminants in our drinking water. This is one of them.

NIALA: This is just a proposal. How feasible is it for water companies, for local governments to implement all of this? How much is this gonna cost?

SRI: This will not be cheap. This is an expensive proposition from the EPA. Now it's quite possible that if and when, then the rules are implemented with these exact numbers as they have prescribed, there will be many utilities across the country who will be found in violation. Now, so there will be a negotiation process of how long utilities get, to actually implement. Is there any funding that is made available by Congress to help utilities sort of bridge that gap and get to that end point where they have adequate technology? So this will be a long running process and I expect some pushback from the water sector in either relaxing the rules, buying more time, or simply getting more funding.

NIALA: What do you think the most important thing is that consumers need to know about the EPA action?

SRI: The most important thing is that this is a class of chemicals that are highly complex. So, we are likely to hear more about them over the many years. It's possible that as years go by, maybe EPA continues to bring down the regulatory limit over time, because these compounds are just everywhere and, you know, drinking water is one place to regulate potentially, eventually, maybe FDA gets in the business and, you know, it's, it's tested in food products and, you know, they start regulating that. Will continue to hear more about PFAS and other sorts of chemicals that are likely in our ecosystem.

NIALA: Sri Vedachalam is the Director of Water Equity and Climate Resilience at Environmental Consulting and Technology Inc. Thanks, Sri.

NIALA: That’s it for us today! I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

President Biden's new action on guns

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Homelessness increased nationwide in 2022. Nearly 600,000 people were experiencing homelessness on a single night in January 2022, according to a HUD assessment. All of this is having a big impact on local elections in Western cities.

Plus, the markets react to the Silicon Valley Bank fallout. 

And, the Biden administration tries to balance energy and the environment in Alaska.

Guests: Axios' John Frank, Kim Bojórquez, Matt Phillips and Ben Geman.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

How homelessness is driving local politics in the West

Biden administration approves Willow oil project in Alaska

The aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank's bailout

Here’s what you need to know today: the markets react to the Silicon Valley Bank fallout. Plus, the Biden administration tries to balance energy and the environment in Alaska. But first, homelessness drives local politics in the Western U.S. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

Homelessness drives local politics in the Western U.S.

NIALA: Homelessness increased nationwide in 2022. Nearly 600,000 people were experiencing homelessness on a single night in January in this country. That's according to one HUD assessment. The lack of affordable housing and homelessness is having a big impact on local elections around the country, especially on the West coast.

Ballots went out yesterday in Denver's Mayor's race where Axios’ John Frank has been covering this. We're also joined by Axios Salt Lake City's Kim Bojórquez, where this is also playing out. Hey John. Hi Kim.

NIALA: John, how is this issue playing out in Denver right now?

JOHN: Well, homelessness and crime, because they're so entangled, is the number one issue in the Denver mayor's race. All the candidates are talking about it all have fairly different ideas on how to solve it for that matter. And what we're really seeing here that's reflective of the national tone. A policy shift that is moving toward enforcement, as the main way to solve this and not a more compassionate road about getting services to vulnerable populations.

That change is incredibly significant here in Denver, and we're seeing at least four mayor candidates who support involuntary commitment or the arrest of people that won't go into shelters.

NIALA: Kim, are those conversations also happening in Salt Lake City?

KIM: Yes, and homelessness is the focal point in this year's Salt Lake City mayoral race. A state report last year said the percentage of people experiencing homelessness for the first time rose by 14% between 2020 and 2021, and officials said it was most likely because of high rent costs and housing.

NIALA: And so in Salt Lake City, are they also having conversations about getting tougher on enforcement around people who experience homelessness?

KIM: I've definitely seen both approaches. Sometimes you will have sweeping of encampments and city officials will say that it's necessary to avoid a public health hazard. And some housing advocates will argue that it's inhumane. But, you've also seen some pretty interesting proposals to solve homelessness. For example, the Salt Lake City Council last year approved a tiny home village, and that is currently in development. I have increasingly heard leaders say that in order to tackle homelessness, you really need to take a holistic approach. So it's not just affordable housing, but it's also mental health services, addiction services, and things like that.

JOHN: The main driver of homelessness, particularly in the West, is affordable housing. You know, these major cities have not had their housing stock keep up with population growth when they're talking about these new affordable housing solutions, whether it's the tiny home village in Salt Lake City, we have one of those in Denver as well, or a sanctioned campsite or even turning some hotels and motels into affordable housing. All of them include some kind of what they call wraparound services, which is mental health services, drug addiction services, other government services safety nets to help get these people up on their feet. It is all related, but it all starts with affordable housing or the lack thereof.

NIALA: So what do you all think these local races are telling us about how the entire country is dealing with unhoused portions of America?

JOHN: At the national level, this homelessness crisis is showing up much more as a crime issue, and that's what you're hearing a lot of the politicians talk about in D.C. because it's, it's a much easier talking point. What's interesting about homelessness it very much is going to factor into national politics. We're already starting to see it trickle into state races, governors, races, and so forth, cause it's not just a major city problem anymore, it's trickling into the suburbs. Even some rural areas of Colorado are having a significant homeless problem. So it's becoming a statewide issue and it's very easily going to move to the national level and how much the pandemic aid from the federal government is going to help solve this problem or not is very much gonna be an issue.

NIALA: Axios’ Denver reporter John Frank and Axios’ Salt Lake City reporter Kim Bojórquez. Thanks to both of you.

The markets react to the Silicon Valley Bank fallout

NIALA: All eyes were on the markets yesterday, for reaction to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and a weekend of extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the FDIC. Axios Markets Correspondent Matt Phillips explains what the markets told us Monday.

MATT PHILLIPS: The message from the stock market seems to be, this isn't quite over. Mid-sized banks really took a beating on Monday. Foremost among them is this bank, First Republic, which is sort of thought to be similar in some ways to Silicon Valley Bank.

It was down about 60%, but there was a handful of other regional banks, some of which are based in California, that were also down almost 30%. It seems to be that there are still significant jitters, at least among investors about the business prospects for these banks.

The only other thing I'd say I'm spotlighting is that there was a lot of money that went into super safe short-term U.S. government bonds, which suggests there's still considerable worries out there. On the other hand, the overall stock market was not that bad, so tech stocks were up. The S&P, the broad stock market index, was kind of a little bit down, you know, 0.2% down, so it's not quite over yet, but it doesn't seem like the stock market is freaking out, broadly.

NIALA: That’s Axios Markets Correspondent Matt Phillips.

After the break: Biden greenlights an Alaska drilling project.

Biden tries to balance energy and the environment in Alaska

NIALA: Welcome back Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo.

The Biden administration announced yesterday that it'll approve oil company ConocoPhillips Willow Project in Alaska, which is estimated to produce around 576 million barrels of oil over 30 years. This part of Alaska is one of the last unspoiled wilderness areas of America. Axios’ Ben Geman is here with the big picture.

Ben, what exactly is the president's strategy here, given both the energy and environmental concerns the Biden administration is dealing with?

BEN GEMAN: I mean, basically this is coming at a time in which the administration is under pressure to act more aggressively on climate change and sort of hasten the country's efforts to pivot away from fossil fuels. On the other hand, with the crisis in Russia, that has really put energy security and oil security at the forefront and put a lot more focus on that. So you had these sort of competing pressures on the administration and they've sort of tried to, in a sense, split the difference here, right?

I mean, the kind of headline, big picture is that they did approve this major project, although they approved it in a smaller configuration than ConocoPhillips had been seeking. On the other hand, they also announced a whole series of new protections to sort of prevent drilling in other areas of the Arctic, both onshore and offshore.

NIALA: The Department of Interior did an environmental analysis of the project you wrote, its carbon output is estimated to be just a tiny fraction of U.S. CO2 emissions. So is this more about the symbolism of allowing for more drilling in Alaska?

BEN: You know, I really think it's both. I mean, on the one hand, this would produce an estimated 180,000 barrels per day at its peak, and approximately 600 million barrels over the multi-decade lifetime of the project. Now, to put it in some context, the world uses about 100 million barrels of oil every single day. So from that standpoint, it is not necessarily that big of a deal. On the other hand, this is coming as the International Energy Agency and climate scientists have been very explicit and clear that the world needs a rapid, immediate, and sustained pivot away from fossil fuels to keep global climate goals from completely slipping away.

NIALA: Ben, so does this give us clues about future actions by the Biden administration when it comes to climate change as well as energy production?

BEN: You know, that is a great question. I was at a huge energy conference in Houston last week in which John Podesta, a top White House Energy and Climate official was essentially trying to say, no this is a sort of unique case, really, and doesn't carry necessarily any wider significance. At the same time, you've got an administration that is clearly struggling to balance its goals around domestic production and energy security while at the same time trying to, sort of walk the walk on its climate change commitments. So this was sort of very delicate and tricky all across the board.

NIALA: Ben Geman writes the Axios Generate newsletter. Thanks Ben.

Homelessness

After a weekend of speculation and anxiety following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, federal banking regulators on Sunday night determined that FDIC insurance funds will be used to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors from losing their money.

And, atmospheric rivers bring more rain, snow and flooding to California.

Guests: Axios' Neil Irwin, Felix Salmon and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

U.S. protects Silicon Valley Bank depositors

Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume relations after China mediation

What is an atmospheric river? Weather event behind California floods, record snow

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Here’s what we’re watching today: China gets a major diplomatic win. Plus: atmospheric rivers are bringing more rain, snow and flooding to California. But first, U.S. banking regulators try to avert financial panic. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

U.S. banking regulators try to avert financial panic

NIALA: It's been a minute since we've heard the phrase bank collapse or the idea that the government has to bail out a bank.

But after a weekend of speculation and anxiety following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday. Last night, federal banking regulators, including the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation determined that FDIC insurance funds will be used to protect SVB depositors from losing their money.

Axios Chief Economic Correspondent Neil Irwin and our Chief Financial correspondent Felix Salmon are here to explain how SVB collapsed and what this means for our entire financial system. Hello, gentlemen.

NIALA: So Felix, how could a major bank that worked with thousands of venture capital firms collapse within a couple of days?

FELIX: It was a big failure of risk management. What they did was they took a whole bunch of deposits, tens of billions of dollars of deposits, and invested them in mortgage bonds, and then those mortgage bonds went down so far in value that it looked very much as though the value of the mortgage bonds was lower than the value of the deposits, that their assets were worth less than their liabilities, which means that they were insolvent.

And when people are banking with a bank that looks like it might be insolvent, they take their money out of that bank. And so what we saw on Thursday was by far the largest bank run that we have ever seen in the history of this country: $42 billion in one day. And the biggest bank run ever in American history up until Thursday was Washington Mutual in 2008, and that was $16 billion in 10 days.

NIALA: Neil, how did the Fed's interest rate hikes make this banker's investment strategy more vulnerable?

NEIL: So what happened is, in 2021, SVB Silicon Valley Bank was buying all these mortgage securities that yielded about 1.5%, 1.6%. Remember, mortgage rates were super low, the securities tied to them also at very low rates. What happens to bonds is when interest rates rise. The value of old bonds falls. So, Silicon Valley Bank had these very safe assets. They had these securities that are gonna pay off, that are doing just fine. But, uh, their value on paper had dropped. And so that's what caused this panic that really enveloped this institution that been around since 1983. And that's what created this bizarre moment on Friday that led to a shocking, uh, policy intervention Sunday night.

NIALA: How much did social media play a role in accelerating this bank run?

NEIL: It's not just social media, it's, it's this broader, you know, Silicon Valley is a very insular community in some ways. And so you had this network of venture capitalists, the companies they fund, all kind of looking at this stuff at the same time, trading notes, you know, exchanging text messages and, and private messages saying, this looks like I don't wanna have my money exposed to this. You know, most banks have, are much more diversified in their, in their deposit base, where it's coming from. This is partly a function of Silicon Valley Bank being geographically concentrated and industry concentrated.

NIALA: What does the move from federal regulators mean for SVB depositors now then?

NEIL: The federal government has said that they will use the FDIC's insurance fund to make sure that every depositor, even if you have more than a quarter million dollars, which is the federal insurance limit, will be made whole. So if you're a company that has $10 million in your account at Silicon Valley Bank, the federal government is saying, even though it's against the rules, we're invoking this special exception in the, in the law to, to make  sure that we're taking care of you and you as a depositor we made whole by the U.S. government.

NIALA: So yesterday, treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, appeared on CBS Sunday morning. Her main message was that our banking system is safe and strong. How does this affect that narrative?

NEIL: The overall capital position of U.S. banks is strong. Like the, she's not wrong. This isn't 2008. This isn't a situation where they made a bunch of bad loans that are now coming due. They bought a bunch of securities that are super safe, and they're fine as long as they have time. But if people start withdrawing their money, then they could face a cash crunch. But the federal government last night stepped in and prevented that cash crunch from happening.

FELIX: The Biden administration is making the case that it's not a bailout. That all of the money is coming from the FDIC insurance fund, and the FDIC insurance fund comes from the banks. By the same token, the government is coming in and effectively making whole, a whole bunch of people who probably would not have been made whole absent for this government action.

NEIL: I think it's a government bailout, but not of the banks, but of the depositors in that bank whether that is appropriate is a question people will debate for a long time. But that's the policy decision that, that Biden administration decided is best for the future of the U.S. economy.

FELIX: One of the things that we realized when Silicon Valley Bank failed was that people with more than $250,000 in the bank are not necessarily rich people. Like often what we're talking about is businesses here and these businesses need to make payroll and if they had no more than $250,000, a lot of them could not make payroll and very, very normal rank and file employees would not get paid. And the idea of deposit insurance was always to protect normal folks, and so that's one of the reasons why the government stepped in.

NIALA: In a moment: China brokers a major deal in the Middle East.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo.

Last week, China helped restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after seven years of tension. Axios’ Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian has why this matters.

BETHANY ALLEN-EBRAHIMIAN: This marks a major diplomatic victory for China in the Middle East, which has traditionally been a stronghold for U.S. diplomacy. This is the first time that China has brokered a major international agreement, particularly between countries with such a complex history. The relationship between these two countries has been fraught for decades as both are jockeying for power in the Middle East and both have differing visions for Islam and view themselves as correct representatives for Islam.

The U.S. is downplaying China's role in this agreement saying that it's not about China, but this is a major diplomatic victory for China because it shows China intends to and indeed can play a constructive role on the world stage. If this détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia can last, it could potentially help reduce some of the violence and instability that we've seen across the region.

And if it fails, then Beijing looks like it has failed too. So this is, the Chinese government really kind of planting a flag in the ground saying, okay, we're gonna be present here and the troubles of the Middle East now we have some, at least reputational stake in.

NIALA: That’s Axios’ China Reporter Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

And in other news out of China: President Xi Jinping on Friday officially assumed his third term, giving him another five years as the country’s leader. He was elected unanimously by the National People's Congress, China’s rubber stamp legislature in China that meets annually.

And: yesterday China also appointed a new defense minister – General Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the U.S. government in 2018 for buying Russian weapons. Bethany tells us this is a strong signal from China that it does not care at all about U.S. sanctions.

Atmospheric rivers bring more rain, snow and flooding to California

NIALA: One more thing before we go today: California has been pummeled this season by rain, snow and flooding because of atmospheric river storms… and this past weekend’s weather in North and Central California left thousands without power and at least two people dead. The area’s now bracing for another storm today.

Sheri in Sacramento County sent us a video over the weekend.

SHERI: Because of the rain and the wind you can see that some construction workers hang a metal fence where they were working and it all blew over. I just wanted you to get the full effect of how us in Northern California are sick of rain… and wind.

NIALA: I can’t even imagine how sick people on the West Coast are of this weather. But - if it’s any comfort – recently released data from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows more of the state - especially in Central California -  is no longer suffering from drought conditions.

As always, tell us what’s going on where YOU are by sending a text, a voice memo, or even a video to me at (202) 918-4893.

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

U.S. banking regulators move to avert financial panic

U.S. banking regulators move to avert financial panic.

Silicon Valley Bank

President Biden presented an almost $7 trillion budget on Thursday with plans to tax the ultra-rich to address a funding crisis with Medicare. Nearly 60 million senior citizens in the U.S. rely on Medicare for health insurance.

Plus, a make-or-break year for the Academy Awards.

And, spring flowers are popping up early all over America.

Guests: Axios' Caitlin Owens, Hans Nichols and Tim Baysinger.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Biden's Medicare budget proposals may have some bite

Biden proposes $6.8 trillion budget to make rich pay "fair share"

Oscar Best Picture nominees have highest total box office since 2010

Here’s what we’re following: a make-or-break year for the Academy Awards. Plus, spring flowers are popping up early all across America. But first: President Biden sets the tone for the fight over Medicare’s future. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

Biden sets the tone for the fight over Medicare

NIALA: President Biden presented an almost $7 trillion budget yesterday with plans to tax the ultra rich to address a funding crisis with Medicare. Nearly 60 million senior citizens in the U.S. rely on Medicare for health insurance.

Axios’ White House reporter Hans Nichols and senior policy reporter Caitlin Owens, are here for our Friday state of play to go deeper into the President's plans for Medicare and how Republicans feel about all of this. Hey Hans. Hi, Caitlin.

NIALA: Hans. Before we get to Medicare, what's the headline around the budget here? What does everyone need to know?

HANS: They need to know that this is a political document. It always is. It seems more so this year because both Republicans and the White House are squaring off over the debt ceiling, and so Biden wants to establish himself firmly in the camp of a deficit cutter, someone who's concerned about the deficit, but he also wants to tell his progressive base that he is for their priorities.

And so that's why you have this big headline number, you know, $6.8, .9 trillion. I just wanna say trillion. That is a big increase from where we were from the pre Covid era. Now, so a lot of that's defense spending, but he also has a lot on the domestic side. And then of course, the biggest portion is social security, Medicare, and Medicaid probably aren't gonna be touched. But again, this is a president positioning himself for a big fight with Republicans. There's no chance this budget will get through Congress. So this is a largely about positioning.

NIALA: So let's talk about positioning on Medicare. Can you catch us up on the debate prior to this Biden proposal?

HANS: So Biden cleverly, if you listen to his allies, and even some Republicans will acknowledge, convinced the Republican leaders to stand up and say that Medicare will not be cut and social security will not be cut during the State of the Union address.

He still likes to go to the well and accuse Republicans. He has a little caveat on there saying, MAGA Republicans want to cut Medicare and social Security. and that's how the debate is framing up. Now, he's proposing this, this surcharge, and I think Caitlin can kind of explain it better than I can, but a surcharge on the wealthiest Americans to ensure that Medicare remains solvent for another 25 years.

CAITLIN: Yeah so, money comes into the program through taxes and then it gets paid out of the program. And so basically what's happening is, you know, analysts are projecting how long it will take for what is coming in to not be enough to pay and make up for what's coming out. So that projection depends on how much we spend in the next few years and you know, what the economy is doing. So,what would likely happen is there would be across the board payment cuts to Medicare providers, then that could affect patients, in turn. So basically this big fight is about, is like, you know, looking at this looming insolvency. How do we make both sides of the ledger add up here?

NIALA: How is President Biden proposing to fix this then?

CAITLIN: So there's really only three ways to do that. One of them is raising taxes. The second two have to do with decreasing spending. The first option is to cut benefits that you pay out to seniors. And then the second option is to cut what the program pays to healthcare providers and healthcare insurers.

Biden is choosing to both raise taxes, which he does through taxes on high income earners. and to cut payments to, in this case actually it's the pharmaceutical industry. The irony here is that he does technically propose a Medicare cut in his proposal. It's just to cut to the pharmaceutical industry.

NIALA: How much does Medicare represent as part of this overall budget?

CAITLIN: Medicare and Social Security are two of the biggest chunks of spending that the U.S., uh, has every single year. And so this is the problem that Republicans have is they have said that they wanna reduce spending. They have said that they want to make a budget that balances over 10 years, and that would require huge cuts in spending. You cannot balance a budget over 10 years without touching Medicare, social security, and defense spending without cutting almost all other domestic spending.

You know, we talked about those three buckets, right? Where you can raise taxes, you can cut benefits, or you can cut payments to providers, insurers, drug companies. I wouldn't rule out Republicans dipping into that third bucket.

NIALA: Hans, what are you watching for then?

HANS: I wanna see whether or not Republicans come forward with their own budget and what's in it. I mean, Caitlin's sort of raising this big elephant in the room, which is if you wanna reduce deficit spending, you have to tackle entitlement, uh, and have some sort of entitlement reform.

The person who knows that probably better than anyone in Washington right now is Joe Biden, he led the last big debt ceiling cutting, spending showdown. And he was in the room trying to negotiate with John Boehner and they looked at something at the time they called a grand bargain, which would have some Republican give on taxes and maybe an increase in taxes and some democratic give on lowering the overall trajectory of entitlement spending. You know, the politics on this aren't actually that complicated. Everyone wants to be for seniors, everyone wants to be for Medicare spending. Everyone wants to be for social security benefits going out, but it just gets expensive.

NIALA: Hans Nichols covers the Biden Administration for Axios. Caitlin Owens is a senior policy reporter. Caitlin, Hans, thanks so much.

NIALA: In a moment: the Oscars fight for relevance.

A make-or-break year for the Academy Awards

This Sunday is the 95th Annual Academy Awards and the Oscars are fighting for viewership, including mine. Axios’ Tim Baysinger has been covering the story.

Tim, where are we at with people watching the Oscars and how important this show is anymore?

TIM BAYSINGER: A lot of the criticism of the Oscars recently has been that the really popular movies are not the ones that get nominated for the big awards. Well, this year you have “Top Gun: Maverick” up for Best Picture, “Avatar: The Way of Water” up for Best Picture, those were the two highest grossing movies of 2022. Avatar, one of the highest grossing movies ever. So it has a lot going for it that it really hasn't had in the last few years. Also it has, you know, people who will wanna see if there's another crazy event like what happened last year, when Will Smith slapped Chris Rock? So, I think that if it's ever gonna really come back meaningfully in terms of viewership, culturally, this is gonna be the year.

NIALA: Are the Oscars a huge revenue maker for networks like ABC that are hosting it?

TIM: Yes. Even with its falling audience, it still will get, you know, advertisers spending north of $2 million for a 30 second commercial spot. So for ABC, it's still very much financially very important, and they've had it since the 70s and they have it through 2028 on their latest TV deals. So they're still very much invested in the show.

NIALA: So, Tim, given the ad revenue and how lucrative it is for a television network, does it matter if viewership drops off?

TIM: If it keeps dropping off, it's eventually going to matter because what you're seeing happening in the award show industry is that a lot of award shows that aired on TV for decades are now moving to streaming. Netflix just picked up the SAG Awards, Academy of Country Music Awards that aired for CBS for like 25 years is now on Amazon.

I think that's the question we're all asking is, are these awards shows that used to be really big ticket TV items. The way of like the Super Bowl was, I mean it was called for many years, the Entertainment Super Bowl, Hollywood Super Bowl. And now it's fair to wonder if that's gonna be a streaming kind of thing now? And if it does, I mean, it's not gonna get the same viewership that a broadcast TV would get.

NIALA: Tim Baysinger is a media deals reporter for Axios. Thanks Tim.

Spring flowers are popping up early all over America

A warm winter across much of the U.S. is leading to a surprising sight: spring flowers in bloom at the start of March. From here in D.C. where the cherry blossoms are feeling the effects of climate change… to Columbus, Ohio; Houston, Texas and beyond…Axios local reporters across the country are seeing signs of an early spring.

Flowers and trees budding early are a visual reminder that even as extreme storms make headlines, our winters are getting warmer – in fact as Axios’ Andrew Freedman reports, winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the continental U.S.

Does late winter look different where you are? Tell us about it – you can text a voice memo to 202-918-4893.

NIALA: And that does it for us this week. Axios Today is produced by Fonda Mwangi, Naomi Shavin  and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our senior sound engineer is Alex Sugiura, and Ben O’Brien also mixes the show. Alexandra Botti is our supervising producer.

Axios’ editor in chief is Sara Kehaulani Goo and executive editor is Aja Whitaker-Moore. Special thanks as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Stay safe, enjoy your weekend and we’ll see you back here on Monday.

President Biden sets the tone for the fight over Medicare’s future.

Medicare

The Louisville Metro Police Department has engaged in systemic discriminatory practices that violate the U.S. Constitution, according to a new report released yesterday from the Department of Justice.

Plus, local libraries find new ways to support communities. 

Guests: The Washington Post's David Nakamura and San Jose Public Library's Jill Bourne.

Louisville police engaged in pattern of misconduct, Justice Dept. finds

Louisville police repeatedly violated civil rights, DOJ review finds

Arkansas Gov. Sanders signs law loosening child labor protections

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Here’s what we’re following: local libraries find new ways to support communities. Plus, Arkansas loosens its child labor protections. But first, the DOJ says Louisville, Kentucky police repeatedly violated civil rights. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

DOJ says Louisville police repeatedly violated civil rights

NIALA: The Louisville Metro Police Department has engaged in systemic discriminatory practices that violate the U.S. Constitution. That's according to a new report released yesterday from the U.S. Department of Justice. It's the culmination of a two year investigation launched after the 2020 killing of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old black woman who was shot to death by Louisville Police. David Nakamura covers the Justice Department and Civil Rights for the Washington Post, and he’s here with more –

So David, we’re almost at the 3-year anniversary of Breonna Taylor’s death… what exactly did this DOJ report say?

DAVID NAKAMURA: The main takeaways was that this department consistently used excessive force, uh, and made a number of civil rights violations, in the years leading up to Breonna Taylor’s killing. And this is something that advocates there had been talking about for years. The Justice Department has a number of specific incidents, some of which had been made public before, some of which have not, about, uh, officers mistreating, particularly Black people, Black suspects, uh, using tasers inappropriately, immediately escalating situations, throwing people to the ground, beating them with their flashlight. In one case, a woman who was in an arguing room with some other folks, they beat her several times with a flashlight. So many times the officers didn't even recall how many. And these are incidents that have piled up and the idea is that, the Justice Department is now saying, look, this is something that was happening well before Breonna Taylor's death, and it's something that the department really needs to take serious and, and sort of sweeping action to, to fix.

NIALA: And so there's this negotiated agreement between the Louisville Police Department and the Justice Department. What will that achieve?

DAVID: The federal investigation now, uh, kicks off a negotiating round in which, uh, the two sides will come to some sort of agreement to probably install a federal monitor. And layout basically hundreds of reforms and changes, some of which the department has already been trying to undertake in the past two years. This is a process now called the consent agreement, that once it's approved by the court, could last five years or even longer as we've seen in other cities.

NIALA: And how has that worked in other cities? Because this isn't the first time we've seen the DOJ get involved.

DAVID: Congress gave the DOJ the power to have these consent agreements after Rodney King's beating in Los Angeles. But there's been very mixed, uh, you know, outcomes. In some cases, departments have had to go under a second, federal oversight. And there's been cases where they've showed some progress, but in the end, a lot of the money that's spent, advocates on the ground, legal experts have said these are not the big sweeping changes that federal officials have hoped for. In other cases, they've seen more progress about a reduction of excessive force among some police. Uh, Vanita Gupta, number three official in DOJ, today cited some of those cases. She said Baltimore has shown some improvements and New Orleans. But it's, no, it's no given and it costs a lot of money for each city and could last quite a long time.

DOJ finds Louisville police violated civil rights

DOJ finds Louisville police repeatedly violated civil rights.

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