Then-candidate Donald Trump famously remarked two weeks before the Iowa caucuses in 2016 that he could "stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody" and he "wouldn't lose any voters."

• Today, Trump's lawyer suggested in federal court that a president could order SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival and — unless he was impeached and convicted by Congress — be immune from criminal prosecution.

Why it matters: The two scenarios are provocative and hyperbolic, but they offer a useful window into the dueling political and legal realities in which Trump is operating.

1. Trump commands an unprecedented degree of loyalty from the Republican Party, which has stuck by him through Jan. 6, two impeachments and four indictments.
2. But the legal system — and in particular, the federal appeals panel weighing Trump's "absolute immunity" argument — appears to have far less tolerance for the notion that former presidents are above the law, even for their actions in office.

Driving the news: Trump, who attended today's hearing in D.C. in person, is seeking to toss out or at least delay his March 4 trial on federal charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

• Trump attorney D. John Sauer argued that Trump's actions surrounding Jan. 6 were part of his presidential duties, and that impeachment and conviction by Congress are a prerequisite for prosecution.
• But Trump's own lawyers noted during his January 2021 impeachment trial that he could be subject to future criminal liability, and several Senate Republicans voted to acquit him on that basis.

Zoom in: The three-judge panel today seemed deeply skeptical of the claim that former presidents cannot be prosecuted for actions that fall under their presidential duties.

• "I asked you a 'yes' or 'no' question: Could a president who ordered SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival, who was not impeached, would he be subject to criminal prosecution?" asked Judge Florence Pan.
• "My answer is: qualified yes. There is a political process that would have to occur under our Constitution, which would require impeachment and conviction by the Senate," Sauer replied.

Between the lines: This is where Trump's "Fifth Avenue" worldview and legal arguments begin to converge.

• Under Trump's reasoning, all it would take is 34 loyal senators to vote for acquittal in an impeachment trial and give that president unchecked power to commit crimes.
• "I think it's paradoxical to say that his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed allows him to violate criminal law," a skeptical Judge Karen Henderson noted.

What to watch: In remarks after the hearing, Trump warned that there would be "bedlam in the country" if the indictment is allowed to stand.

• "When they talk about threat to democracy, that's your real threat to democracy," Trump declared.
• Asked on his way out whether he would urge his supporters to refrain from violence "no matter what," Trump was silent.

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters today that Congress will "obviously" need to pass another short-term spending bill in order to avoid a partial government shutdown on Jan. 19.

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — who appears to be on a collision course with an increasingly agitated right flank — had previously pledged not to pass another so-called continuing resolution, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

State of play: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) reached an agreement over the weekend on government spending levels for 2024, setting the stage for Congress to pass its annual appropriations bills.

• As McConnell explained, those bills are unlikely to be written and passed by both chambers of Congress in time for the Jan. 19 funding deadline.
• "The simplest things take a week in the Senate," the GOP leader said. "Frequently, the House doesn't understand how long it takes to get something through the Senate."

What we're watching: Johnson, who said in November he is "done with short-term CRs," is taking flak from hardliners who are upset about him agreeing to the spending levels set by the debt ceiling deal negotiated by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

• Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) notably didn't rule out trying to oust Johnson in several interviews today.
• "I'm leaving it on the table. ... I'm not saying I'm not gonna file it tomorrow. I think the speaker needs to know that we're angry about it," Roy told Blaze TV.

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President Biden was not aware that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had been diagnosed with prostate cancer in early December until this morning, just hours before the Pentagon shared the news with the public.

Why it matters: Biden spoke with Austin on Saturday as the controversy unfolded over the Pentagon chief's secret hospitalization on Jan. 1, which we now know was caused by an infection stemming from his cancer treatment.

• Despite insisting he had confidence in Austin, Biden was apparently not told of the specific illness the secretary was being treated for until today — more than three weeks after the initial treatment procedure on Dec. 22.
• A group of House Republicans sent a letter to Biden this afternoon calling for Austin's resignation, as well as the resignation of any staff "involved in covering up his hospitalization," Politico reported.

The big picture: White House chief of staff Jeff Zients is launching a review of Cabinet protocols for delegating authority in the wake of the Pentagon debacle.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) railed against federal prosecutors on the Senate floor today, growing emotional as he accused them of a "smear campaign" in the wake of another superseding indictment.

Why it matters: The former Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair has faced immense pressure to resign over criminal allegations that include accepting bribes to benefit the governments of Egypt and Qatar.

What they're saying: "I am suffering greatly as a result of what they have done," Menendez, choking back tears.

• "After 50 years of public service, this is not how I wanted to celebrate my golden jubilee. But I have never violated the public trust."
• Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), a leading Democratic critic of Menendez, remarked after the speech: "That sleazeball has to go."

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