Axios Sneak Peek

December 01, 2022
Welcome back to Sneak. We were overwhelmed by the flood of responses we received to yesterday's caption contest (winner at the bottom). Thank you to all our wonderful and witty readers.
- Smart Brevityβ’ count: 988 words ... 3.5 minutes.
1 big thing: Michigan poised to dominate presidential politics
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Michigan is inching closer to joining the early 2024 Democratic presidential primary window, a major shakeup after months of intense lobbying and an official vote in the state Senate backing the effort, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Josh Kraushaar report.
Why it matters: The calendar change, if supported at a meeting of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee that starts tomorrow, would have seismic implications for President Biden's party.
- It would also cement Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer β once a top choice for Biden's running mate β as a Democratic star with the potential to be a formidable presidential candidate herself someday.
- The potential shift comes after Whitmer was comfortably elected to a second term and Democrats flipped the state legislature for the first time in 38 years, making Michigan one of the party's top midterm success stories.
Driving the news: Michigan's state Senate voted Tuesday night to move the state's presidential primary date up to the second week of February, jockeying for an elusive position in the window before Super Tuesday.
- Michigan and Minnesota are the two top contenders to become the first Midwestern state in the calendar, after Iowa fell out of favor with Democrats over the 2020 caucus debacle and broader diversity concerns.
- Michigan looked like a tougher sell before Democrats won back full control of state government. Now, Democrats can unilaterally make changes to the calendar without GOP support.
The big picture: The size difference between Michigan and Iowa alone would dramatically reshape the incentives for future campaigns.
- Michigan is the 10th largest state in the nation by population size and awarded more primary delegates in 2020 than the other three early states combined: New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
- Starting the primary process in Michigan would favor wealthy candidates and fundraising juggernauts β think Michael Bloomberg in 2020 β at the expense of grassroots-oriented underdogs.
Between the lines: As they move away from Iowa, some Democrats question Michigan's relatively low Latino and AAPI representation compared to a state like Nevada, which is also lobbying to move up in the calendar.
- Pro-Michigan Democrats say the state would boost the fortunes of union-backed candidates, bolster Black voters' influence and divert new attention to the state's sizable Arab American constituencies.
- Women occupy the three top statewide offices in Michigan (governor, attorney general and secretary of state), and up-and-comers like Rep. Elissa Slotkin and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are reinforcing Michigan's reputation as a factory for Democratic stars.
What we're watching: Biden β whose opinion on the calendar will ultimately be the most important β was in Michigan this week to pitch his vision for domestic manufacturing and semiconductors.
- Whitmer is also scheduled to be in D.C. this week for a donor event at the Democracy Alliance conference.
2. π€ Scoop: Jeffries' progressive bridge-building
Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) at a House Judiciary Committee hearing in 2020. Photo: Alex Edelman-Pool/Getty Images
Newly elected Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has been sitting down with leading House progressives, including at least three members of the "Squad," as he prepares to lead the caucus into the post-Pelosi era, Axios' Andrew Solender has learned.
Why it matters: A major task Jeffries will have as minority leader will be maintaining unity within his caucus βΒ a fractious array of business-friendly moderates and urban progressives that spans a range of demographic divides.
- Jeffries' history with the left flank of his party has been fraught at times. "The extreme left is obsessed with talking trash about mainstream Democrats on Twitter," he told the New York Times last year.
- Jeffries also launched a PAC last year with several other Democrats, including centrist Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), to help House incumbents fend off primary insurgents. Members like Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who both unseated longtime establishment Democrats in Jeffries' home state, were once those insurgents.
Driving the news: Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said she had a "really good conversation" with Jeffries yesterday and has encouraged him to "sit down with some of the key members in the left part of the caucus."
- He has already done so with Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), the three Squad members told Axios β with more meetings planned.
- Jayapal said of Jeffries' past comments about the left: "I hope he doesn't continue to use some of that language, because ... it's not actually reflecting what I think he believes about progressives."
3. π¬ Senate's gay-marriage evolution

Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) voted last night to protect marriage equality rights β a reversal from 26 years ago, when they voted to define marriage as between one man and one woman, Axios' Stef Kight reports.
By the numbers: In 1996, 32 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted in support of the Defense of Marriage Act.
- In 2022, 49 out of 50 Democrats β Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) missed the vote β voted for the Respect for Marriage Act, which officially repeals DOMA.
- Four Democrats, including Leahy and Murray, have been in the Senate long enough to vote both times. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) voted both times in defense of same-sex marriage.
4. π Mapped: Coastal Dems' power

Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) created the above graphic for her pitch to become Democratic caucus vice chair, centered on the need for Midwestern representation, according to Politico's Sarah Ferris.
- Dingell ended up losing to Rep. Ted Lieu β a Californian.
5. π§ 1 cheesy thing

Above: The menu of cheeses for President Biden's state dinner tomorrow with French President Emmanuel Macron, designed by first lady Jill Biden and White House chefs.
- Also on the menu: American Osetra caviar, butter poached Maine lobster and Newton unfiltered Chardonnay 2018.
Caption contest winner: "The happiest guy in the room is the one on the horse!" Congrats to Ellen H.
This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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