San Diego is short around 90,000 homes, according to figures global developer Hines shared with Axios.

• That's in line with an estimate from Ray Major, chief economist at the San Diego Association of Governments, that the region had a 100,000-home deficit after homebuilding failed to keep pace with job and population growth.

Zoom out: The U.S. is short 3.2 million homes, per Hines' analysis, a driving factor in the country's high housing costs, Axios' Sami Sparber reports.

What they're saying: "We're not going to overcome this deficit anytime soon just building single-family housing," Hines managing director Ryan McCullough told Axios.

Of note: Hines compared the stock of existing homes, for rent and sale, against what they calculated as the population's housing demand for 55 major markets across the country.

• Nashville, New Orleans and Austin were the only three major housing markets with enough supply to meet demand, Hines found.

What's happening: Housing starts across those 55 metros have plunged since the 2008 financial crisis, McCullough says.

• The city of San Diego would need to triple its housing production to meet what the state considers its annual housing need, per the city's 2023 housing report.

The big picture: San Diego has for years rewritten community plans to allow for more housing, and reformed development rules to spur development.

• The region has drawn statewide praise for its willingness to implement pro-housing reforms, but that hasn't translated into a major increase in homebuilding.

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The tug of war over San Diego being a buyer's or seller's market will likely continue this year, but more palatable mortgage rates and upticks in inventory could open doors for buyers.

Why it matters: Many homeowners and wannabe buyers stood still in 2023, waiting for rates to drop before they made a move, Axios' Brianna Crane writes.

What they're saying: There's an expectation for interest rates to continue dropping, which will renew interest from buyers and sellers and boost inventory, local real estate broker Spencer Lugash told Axios.

• "That's a big factor in the affordability of homes to allow more buyers into the market," he said.

What's happening: San Diego's housing shortage and low inventory also means it's a good time to sell, according to local agent Julie Chang.

Zoom in: Inventory has increased over the past year and houses aren't getting 30 offers anymore, so it feels like less of a frenzy than prior years.

• Yes, but: Many buyers are priced out of the market and those looking in a specific zip code, at a set price point with unique characteristics are finding few options.
• Plus: Availability and cost of homeowners insurance is worsening for Californians.

Reality check: "There is no point to predicting what is going to happen because none of us control market forces," Chang said.

The big picture: If the economy is steady, rates could land around 6%. If the economy stumbles, mortgage rates could fall more significantly, predicts Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst.

A little bit of advice

🚔 The city of San Diego has launched an online survey and is hosting community forums as it begins its search for a new police chief. (City News Service)

🌊 A new round of king tides, even bigger than last month's, is headed for San Diego this week. (NBC 7)

🚌 San Diego Unified's school bus fleet will soon be entirely electric after the district won a grant from the federal government's $1 billion program to lower GHG emissions of school buses. (KPBS)

The San Diego-Tijuana region's year as a global capital for design got off to a rough start.

Driving the news: Carlos de la Mora, the CEO of the organization tasked with planning a yearlong event series celebrating urban design and art in the connected border region, was fired last week, Voice of San Diego reported through emails it obtained.

• The San Diego-Tijuana border region was selected as the 2024 "World Design Capital" over a bid from Moscow in 2021, promising events from street festivals to policy conferences to showcase the area as an arts and culture destination.

Why it matters: The city of San Diego gave the group $3 million in last year's budget, after Mayor Todd Gloria told the Union-Tribune it would be funded through private donations.

• "It's a great event, but people might initially have an issue understanding what it's about, Jose Larroque, a member of WDC's board, told Voice of San Diego.

Details: 2024 is the first year a binational region has held the event, and San Diego is the first U.S. host city.

What's happening: Programming is expected to begin in February with a monthly "World Design Spotlight" event. No other details are currently posted.

• A street festival is expected for May 1-5.
• A scheduled design showcase in September promises to transform five spaces, including the Mingei International Museum in Balboa Park.

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👋 Kate here to share a moment of bliss.

Driving the news: My mom and I enjoyed a spa day at Four Moons in Leucadia, and it felt like we'd escaped to a private meditation garden to decompress.

Details: The property is tucked away, allowing guests to enjoy the serenity of natural elements while soaking in an outdoor tub, meditating in a Balinese hut over a koi pond and sipping house-made tea under a tree canopy as they await a relaxing facial or massage.

• Four Moons offers traditional spa services, plus holistic wellness experiences including acupuncture, empathic healing, spirit readings and Tarot.

💭 Kate's thought bubble: This secluded, mostly outdoor spa feels more spiritual and natural than the ones at chic hotels or luxurious resorts.

• 🧖🏻‍♀️Tell us: What are your favorite spas around San Diego?