A new media company called Eventual is launching in partnership with Polymarket to give the world's top prediction market traders a platform for news and analysis.

🔮 Why it matters: Just as FiveThirtyEight turned polling into a new way to understand politics, Eventual believes prediction market data can be used to analyze everything from elections to the economy.

State of play: The startup, founded by former prediction market blogger turned podcast producer and writer Alex Keeney, has raised a modest seed round with participation from LightShed Ventures, Riverside Ventures, Juniper Ventures and BDG Media founder Bryan Goldberg, per Keeney.

• Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction market companies, is Eventual's launch sponsor and exclusive data partner.

Between the lines: The company plans to sell ads and sponsorships against the brand's content on its own channels and social media.

• It currently publishes a twice-weekly live video show hosted by Keeney featuring top prediction market traders alongside founders, investors, policymakers and journalists. Eventually, Keeney hopes to expand to a daily cadence.
• Eventual publishes a paid and free Substack newsletter, as well as daily articles on its website, which is powered by Substack.
• In the future, Keeney hopes to roll out subscription products for enterprise customers, such as a data and analytics suite.

Zoom in: Eventual has brought on some of the world's most prominent prediction market traders to write content and co-host podcasts, including Domer, Caleb Davies, Brian Golden and Paul Krishnamurty.

• Additional contributors include PolyTraderPro founder Doug Campbell, U.K. journalist and author William Kedjanyi, and prediction market regulatory analyst Mick Bransfield.
• Pratik Chougule, executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, will serve as managing editor of the site's written content.

🥷 The big picture: While prediction markets have exploded into the mainstream over the past two years, traders themselves remain largely anonymous, and the industry still faces regulatory scrutiny.

• "Prediction markets are a powerful tool for understanding our future. But they need skilled humans to translate their insights," Keeney said in a statement.

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People Incorporated, formerly known as IAC, is exploring a possible sale of The Daily Beast as it looks to focus its portfolio around People Inc. and MGM, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: The company was looking to sell the outlet several years ago, but instead installed new leadership to try to turn the business around.

State of play: Now that the site is profitable, it's taking the venture back to the market.

• Conversations about a sale are serious but not necessarily immediate, a source said.

Catch up quick: Barry Diller, People Incorporated's founder and chair, tapped Ben Sherwood, the former president of Disney's ABC Television Group, and Joanna Coles, the former Hearst Magazines content chief, to run The Daily Beast in 2024.

• At the time, the outlet was on track to lose more than eight figures, Axios reported.
• A source told Axios that The Daily Beast lost $11 million in 2023.

Zoom in: To get the outlet to profitability, Sherwood and Coles instituted voluntary buyouts in 2024 while making product changes to shift the company's business away from being overly reliant on banner ads.

• Prior to their arrival, the majority of revenue came from selling ads on The Daily Beast's website. Today, that represents less than a quarter of revenue, a source said.
• The company's business is now more diversified across different revenue streams, including podcasts, subscriptions and syndication.

Between the lines: People Incorporated has been vocal about shedding non-core assets to focus on its lifestyle publishing and experiences businesses.

• In March, it announced a deal to sell Care.com to a private investment group.
• In June, it offered to buy out the remaining stake in MGM Resorts International that it doesn't already own (roughly 74%) for $48.30 per share.

Of note: Sherwood, Coles and Daily Beast president Keith Bonnici were given a minority stake in the outlet when they were hired to revive it. It's possible they could pursue a management buyout.

• Representatives from The Daily Beast and People Incorporated did not comment.

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Humans are becoming passive consumers of hyper-personalized information as online discovery shifts from chronological feeds to AI-driven videos and conversations.

Why it matters: Niche video-first content is becoming more valuable as a result.

🎥 Driving the news: Meta said last week that it's testing a full-screen, immersive video experience at the center of its flagship Facebook app, rather than a news feed.

• That shift, which puts more hyper-personalized content in front of users, signals a pivot from optimizing for attention to intention.

The big picture: AI-powered recommendation systems are changing what success looks like online for platforms and creators.

• For Big Tech, user relevancy matters more than baiting artificial engagement.
• For creators, "being specific can actually be an advantage," says What's Trending founder Shira Lazar, who was recently named to TIME100 Creators.

🤳 State of play: Internet platforms are rewarding creators who are relevant to a certain subset of users, rather than those with generic, mass appeal.

• Roughly 45.5% of influencer marketing spend in the U.S. this year is expected to go to influencers with fewer than 20,000 followers, according to an eMarketer estimate.
• Business and professional content that addresses high-intent user queries sees more scrapes per human query than any other type of content online, per TollBit.

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"Hadestown: The Musical" opened to a whopping $10.2 million domestically over the weekend, surpassing "Hamilton" to become the highest box office debut for a professionally filmed theater performance.

Why it matters: The record-setting opening validates theatrical releases as a viable distribution model for certain live stage productions.

🏆 Catch up quick: "Hadestown" opened on Broadway in 2019 and won eight Tony Awards, including Best Musical.

• It has remained on Broadway ever since, opened in London's West End in 2024 and has toured North America almost continuously since 2021.
• The show takes on Greek myths in an American folk and jazz-inspired musical about love, hope and survival.

Reality check: While it started as an indie theatrical offering with a dedicated group of core fans, "Hadestown" has evolved into a mainstream hit, the show's theatrical and film producer Mara Isaacs told Axios.

Zoom in: The show partnered with Bleecker Street's Crosswalk and LD Entertainment to distribute to 1,949 theaters across North America this past weekend.

• It was a prime release opportunity, given there was no other major motion picture slated for that weekend, Isaacs said.
• The thematic parallels to Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey," which debuted earlier this month, also created synergies.

🎭 Zoom out: Isaacs said initial attendance data suggests both the Broadway and West End productions are benefiting from a "glow effect."

Between the lines: While "Hadestown" amassed a loyal following over the past seven years, producers believed a theatrical release could create an event that would drive stronger community around the story, which is why it didn't bring the show to streaming first.

The big picture: Live theater tends to be a risky venture, with only a small minority ever recouping their initial investment.

• Successful box office runs and streaming windows are helping to deliver new revenue streams that can drive further investment in new shows and fan experiences.

🌹 What's next: The initial five-day theatrical run has been so successful that the producers of "Hadestown" have extended its box office presence.

• Asked whether they're considering a streaming window, Isaacs said "Hadestown" producers are working with their distribution partners on next steps, including future formats.

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NBCUniversal and YouTube struck a broad, multiyear deal to bundle ad-supported Peacock Premium with YouTube Premium, beginning in 2027.

The big picture: The deal represents a strategic shift for programmers as they look to expand the reach of their streaming services, even if they don't own the customer relationships directly.

Why it matters: The agreement addresses a strategic tension that surfaced last year during the companies' messy distribution negotiations.

• 🦚 NBCU wanted YouTube to distribute Peacock as a part of its broader linear channel distribution deal with YouTube TV, but YouTube didn't want to bake Peacock into its live TV bundle offering.
• 📺 The two sides eventually agreed to a long-term deal to ensure NBCU channels wouldn't go dark for YouTube TV subscribers. The new announcement is an extension of that deal.

Zoom in: Both parties appear to have negotiated a middle ground with the new deal.

• NBC gets a stronger distribution deal for Peacock Premium, but through a bundle with YouTube Premium, not YouTube TV.
• YouTube gets access to premium Peacock programming to strengthen its own subscription offering, without having to potentially raise prices on consumers for YouTube TV.

🔌 Zoom out: Peacock, Starz and HBO Max offer more discounted streaming bundles in the U.S. than other major services, according to an Axios analysis.

Go deeper: Peacock leads the pack in streaming bundle boom

Paramount chair David Ellison said he's confident the Warner Bros. Discovery merger will prevail, after agreeing to postpone the deal's closing possibly until June 2027, when the merger agreement expires.

Why it matters: The move, which extends a shorter pause imposed last week by a federal judge in California, brings further uncertainty to the $110 billion megamerger that took many months to broker.

⚖️ State of play: Paramount sees a delay as a win over a possible preliminary injunction, which a federal judge was weighing amid a temporary restraining order issued last week.

• The company believes taking its antitrust fight with a dozen state attorneys general straight to trial offers the quickest path to a final ruling on the merger's legality.
• A preliminary injunction could've delayed a hearing on the case's merits even longer.

🏛️ Zoom in: In a memo sent to staff Monday, Ellison said the company's leadership remains "highly confident that this transaction does not pose any legal issues, and we will complete it and bring these two companies together."

• He said regulatory bodies and governments representing 65 jurisdictions globally, including the European Commission, Australia, China, the U.S., Germany, France, Spain, Canada and South Korea, "have either cleared the transaction or elected not to challenge it on competition and/or foreign direct investment grounds."

Yes, but: One of the challenges Paramount faces in backing the merits of its merger in court is that the arguments it made when trying to sell its bid as superior to Netflix's could come back to bite it, per LightShed Partners analyst Rich Greenfield.

• Paramount previously said Netflix would harm theatrical competition and that YouTube didn't compete with linear TV. Now that it's defending its own case, its positions on those issues have flipped.
• "Courts weigh credibility. When a litigant's own executives have spent the past year making the opposing side's arguments for it on camera, on podcasts, and in investor presentations, it will be hard for a judge to ignore," Greenfield writes.

🎬 Zoom out: Meanwhile, Hollywood continues to voice its concerns.

• SAG-AFTRA, the biggest actors' union, endorsed the states' lawsuit over the weekend, as well as a similar antitrust suit opposing the deal filed earlier this month by the Writers Guild of America.