Exclusive: Small publishers hit hardest by search traffic declines
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Smaller web publishers, with 1,000–10,000 daily page views, are experiencing the most precipitous traffic declines in the AI era, according to new Chartbeat data provided exclusively to Axios.
Why it matters: The data suggests larger publishers with better brand recognition and stronger direct-to-consumer products are more insulated from declines in traditional search traffic.
Zoom in: Over the past two years, referral traffic from traditional search engines has declined by 60% for small publishers, compared with 47% for medium-sized publishers and 22% for large publishers, per Chartbeat.
- Medium-sized publishers are outlets with 10,000–100,000 daily page views, on average. Large publishers are those with more than 100,000 daily page views on average.
- Chartbeat aggregates that data from thousands of client websites that use its revenue and analytics tools globally. It's been tracking internet traffic trends across its network for nearly two decades.
Reality check: Traffic from AI-driven search experiences and chatbots isn't close to offsetting declines from traditional search, per Chartbeat.
- Page views from Google Search and Google Discover — the two biggest referrers of traditional search traffic globally — fell 34% and 15%, respectively, from December 2024 to December 2025.
- While page views from ChatGPT referrals have increased by more than 200% during that period, chatbots still account for less than 1% of all publisher page view referrals.
Yes, but: Overall web traffic isn't plummeting, even though search referrals are declining.
- The average number of weekly page views across all global publishers measured by Chartbeat dropped 6% between 2024 and 2025, which is normal and can be attributed to factors outside of shifting search trends, such as an off year for elections and a shifting news cycle.
The big picture: The data suggests bigger and more sophisticated publishers are finding new ways to mitigate search traffic declines, which has helped temper the overall rate of page view declines on the internet.
- Search traffic for news and media sites, in particular, is being partially offset by new referral channels, such as direct traffic and internal traffic, or traffic that comes from a different page on the same website.
- Referrals from email, apps and instant messages are also growing as a share of overall traffic among news and media publishers.
What to watch: As AI chatbots continue to grow in search traffic, news and media publishers will need to find ways to offer value to readers outside of breaking stories and incremental updates.
- The Chartbeat data finds that news and media websites receive the highest overall number of page views from AI platforms, but the lowest engagement per individual article, suggesting readers rely on those sites to offer fact-checks or context within chatbots, but not deeper analysis.
- Utilitarian sites, or ones that offer things like health advice or gardening tips, tend to see more page views per article on average from chatbots.
The bottom line: The Chartbeat data suggests smaller publishers can no longer rely on search engine optimization to deepen and expand their audience relationships.
- They must focus on building stronger direct relationships and brand recognition with audiences by investing more in their owned and operated channels.
- It also suggests news and media publishers must find ways to solve problems and serve as a utility for readers if they want to drive deeper engagement from AI chatbot referrals.
