Axios Markets

February 09, 2023
Happy Thursday folks. Weekly jobless claims numbers are due out shortly and should show the American job market remains incredibly tight — but will that improve the national mood? It's a bit grim. Read on.
Today's newsletter is 840 words, 3.5 minutes.
1 big thing: Half of us have the financial blues

In a new survey, 50% of Americans told Gallup they're financially worse off now than last year. That's the highest percentage since the Great Recession, Emily writes.
Why it matters: We're not in a recession, but people have the financial blues for a bunch of reasons from politics to prices, which are still high.
- The president touted his economic record this week in the State of the Union, but it's a tough sell — especially across the aisle.
- 61% of Republicans said they were financially worse off this year compared to 37% of Democrats.
What he's saying: "We are the only country that has emerged from every crisis stronger than when we entered it," Biden said Tuesday night.
- "That is what we are doing again. Two years ago, our economy was reeling. As I stand here tonight, we have created a record 12 million new jobs, more jobs created in two years than any president has ever created in four years."
The big picture: "Democrats generally rate their finances better than Republicans do when a Democratic president is in office," Gallup noted in a similar report last year. "And the reverse is usually true under Republican presidential administrations."
Yes, but: Partisanship is just one reason for this much pessimism in an economy that's — and this is worth emphasizing — not in a recession.
- High costs of living and last year’s steep drop in stock prices seem to be overshadowing record-low unemployment — leaving Americans profoundly bummed about the economy.
- Part of this is "pandemic paranoia," as Axios' Hope King wrote recently. Americans are still getting over one of the most dispiriting, dislocating, and uncertain eras of their lifetime.
By the numbers: The Gallup data is from a poll conducted from Jan. 2-22, after a year of rising prices, particularly for food and gas, which made it harder for many to afford the basics.
- The numbers also skew along income lines: 61% of lower-income Americans said they were worse off, compared to 49% of folks in the middle and 43% of high-income earners.
What to watch: Next week, we'll get fresh data on inflation, an increasingly important indicator of the American vibe.
3. Earn customers might get some money back
"It's a sign of hope I guess with a long drawn out battle ahead."— Ian McCray, one of the 340,000 Earn investors whose assets are frozen.
Gemini Earn customers found reason to hope this week: The company moved a step closer to freeing up some of the customer funds that were frozen in November, Emily writes.
What happened: Genesis Global Capital, the now-bankrupt company that borrowed around $900 million in crypto assets from Gemini, agreed in principle to a tentative restructuring plan, Axios' Crystal Kim reports.
- Genesis, its parent Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Gemini said the plan was a major step in the process to maximize what could be recouped.
- Meanwhile, Gemini has agreed to contribute up to $100 million in additional funds to Earn users as part of the plan.
Between the lines: It's not at all clear how much money Earn investors will get back — or whether they'll be paid in dollars or tokens.
- The agreement would be a "big step," says Mark Pfeiffer, bankruptcy attorney at Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney, which is not involved in the case.
Be smart: As is typical in bankruptcy deals, the customers who receive funds under the plan might have to agree to legal "releases" — meaning they give up the right to pursue further claims or lawsuits against Gemini. "That’s a likely component of the deal," Pfeiffer says.
What they're saying: Earn customers who spoke to Axios are cautiously optimistic. One said he got the news about the Genesis deal on his birthday, a nice gift. They're also full of questions.
- Jake, an investor in New York who asked us not to share his last name to protect his privacy, said he had $5,000 in tokens that were frozen by Earn. That cryptocurrency has since increased in value to $15,000, he said.
- "It's frustrating," he says.
The backstory: As crypto cratered, Gemini talked to customers about FDIC insurance
4. 📺 1 thing you won't see during the Super Bowl

This year's Super Bowl ads will notably be missing one of last year's most-hyped categories: crypto, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.
State of play: Executives from Fox Sports told Sports Business Journal that the lack of crypto advertisers was in part to blame for a slower ad sales process for this year's broadcast, compared to last year's game on NBC.
- Crypto firms pulled out amid the FTX scandal and fallout across the industry. Around five crypto ads were aired last year (who can forget the mysterious QR code?).
But, but, but: Super Bowl ad rates continue to soar, despite the fact that viewership hasn't grown as proportionately in recent years.
- Some 30-second spots are fetching more than $7 million, Deadline reports.
✈️ Later today, Southwest Airlines COO Andrew Watterson will deliver an apology to the Senate's Commerce Committee for the company's holiday meltdown. "Let me be clear: we messed up," Watterson says in his prepared testimony.
- Did any readers get caught up in that mess? Email us by replying to the newsletter.
Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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