Axios Hill Leaders

August 07, 2026
Busy Friday. Tonight's edition is 921 words, 3.5 minutes.
- ✈️ Senate's great escape
- 🥊 Incumbent knockout list grows
1 big thing: ✈️ Senate's great escape
Senate Republican leaders are tantalizingly close to a deal to take some uncomfortable votes in exchange for leaving town at a more comfortable hour.
Why it matters: President Trump won't like all of the outcomes, but senators don't plan to be around to hear about it.
- 👍 Winners: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to officially avoid a pre-election shutdown fight, set a new record for confirmed nominees, give Trump his attorney general and show GOP unity for a voter-ID bill to contrast with Democrats. He also finally passed new Russia sanctions.
- 👎 Losers: A budget resolution that passed the House — and has been the White House's priority — is expected to fail. The same fate awaits the voter-ID bill, which won't get the Democratic votes needed to reach 60. Plus, the crypto market-structure bill was delayed until September.
- 🔮 Mysteries: The fates of a hemp product ban and a name, image and likeness college sports bill were still unclear as of late this afternoon.
🎧 What we're hearing: All three items on the GOP Joe Rogan agenda we told you about last night — crypto, hemp and college sports — are wilting in the August heat.
- Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) defied the White House and held fast on his amendment to stop delaying a ban on certain hemp products. It has a real shot of passing.
- Thune punted an initial vote on the CLARITY Act late last night into September, weeks before an election that will make compromise more difficult.
The intrigue: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), despite his best efforts, can't quite convince some fellow Republicans who have lingering questions about his college sports legislation.
- 🏈 The bill would set national rules for how schools pay student-athletes and regulate NIL deals.
- "I want to make sure that this legislation doesn't either intentionally or unintentionally absolve the NCAA, which lacks testicles and a spine," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said.
- The White House Counsel's office is trying to get it across the line, issuing a memo on why the bill does not preempt state laws on transgender women in sports.
🔎 Zoom in: At a rare Friday lunch among Republican senators, the contours of a get-out-of-town deal began to emerge — though Thune was still working through some of the details late this afternoon.
- Senators are still trying to reach a time agreement on the stopgap funding package, but they have agreed to give Budd a vote on his hemp amendment at a 50-vote threshold.
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) introduced his budget resolution to kick off reconciliation 3.0. It would, among other things, provide money for the Pentagon to restock munitions used in Iran.
- But even with a 50-vote threshold, it's expected to fail because of GOP defections.
- Thune is trying to deflect MAGA anger over the Senate's failure to pass the SAVE America Act with a vote on a much narrower bill that would establish a national voter ID standard. But with a 60-vote threshold and no Democratic support, it's headed for defeat.
🧳 The bottom line: Nothing has been easy about getting out of town. Late yesterday, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) refused to agree to a time limit on the continuing resolution unless he received a vote on adjournment.
- But the way out of it is the same: taking a tough vote to catch an earlier flight.
— Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight
2. 🥊 Incumbent knockout list grows


Primaries in Hawaii, Connecticut and Florida over the next 10 days will likely add to the surprisingly lengthy list of lawmakers who have lost their primaries this year.
🔥 Why it matters: The unusually high failure rate of members of Congress seeking renomination to their current seats underscores a deep anti-incumbency sentiment that has emerged as a theme of the 2026 election cycle.
- 🌴 In Hawaii on Saturday, Democratic Rep. Ed Case is facing a spirited primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole.
- On Tuesday, Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) will try to fend off a serious challenge from former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin.
🗳️ On Aug. 18, Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who is under investigation by the Ethics Committee, will see if he can withstand a primary challenge from former sports reporter Ryan Elijah.
- Two of Mills' colleagues, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.), endorsed Elijah this week.
- Haridopolos told us Wednesday that Elijah is a "true family man who can win in November in this safe Republican seat."
☀️ Also in Florida, Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz was left scrambling to find a place to run following mid-decade redistricting.
- Wasserman Schultz has drawn ire from local Black leaders and her fellow candidates after opting to run in a newly redrawn district that has a plurality of Black voters.
- She's the lone white candidate in the primary.
👉 Catch up quick: Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar and Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles lost their primaries this week, bringing to nine the number of unsuccessful House members seeking reelection this year.
- Add in two Republican senators — Texas' John Cornyn and Louisiana's Bill Cassidy — both of whom lost to candidates endorsed by President Trump.
- Ogles, by contrast, lost despite having Trump's backing.
Lawmakers running for another office this year aren't faring much better.
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) all lost gubernatorial primary bids.
- A number of House members seeking Senate seats also have been unsuccessful.
— Kathleen Hunter
This newsletter was edited by Kathleen Hunter and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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