Inside the Senate's great escape plan
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune during a committee markup in Washington on Aug. 6. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Senate Republican leaders are tantalizingly close to a deal to take some uncomfortable votes in exchange for leaving town at a more comfortable hour.
Why it matters: President Trump won't like all of the outcomes, but senators don't plan to be around to hear about it.
- Winners: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to officially avoid a pre-election shutdown fight, set a new record for confirmed nominees, give Trump his attorney general and show GOP unity for a voter-ID bill to contrast with Democrats. He also finally passed new Russia sanctions.
- Losers: A budget resolution that passed the House — and has been the White House's priority — is expected to fail. The same fate awaits the voter-ID bill, which won't get the Democratic votes needed to reach 60. Plus, the crypto market-structure bill was delayed until September.
- Mysteries: The fates of a hemp product ban and a name, image and likeness college sports bill were still unclear as of late Friday afternoon.
What we're hearing: All three items on the GOP Joe Rogan agenda we told you about last night — crypto, hemp and college sports — are wilting in the August heat.
- Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) defied the White House and held fast on his amendment to stop delaying a ban on certain hemp products. It has a real shot of passing.
- Thune punted an initial vote on the CLARITY Act late last night into September, weeks before an election that will make compromise more difficult.
The intrigue: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), despite his best efforts, can't quite convince some fellow Republicans who still have lingering questions about his college sports legislation.
- The bill would set national rules for how schools pay student-athletes and regulate NIL deals.
- "I want to make sure that this legislation doesn't either intentionally or unintentionally absolve the NCAA, which lacks testicles and a spine," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said.
- The White House Counsel's office is trying to get it across the line, issuing a memo on why the bill does not preempt state laws on transgender women in sports.
Zoom in: At a rare Friday lunch among Republican senators, the contours of a get-out-of-town deal began to emerge — though Thune was still working through some of the details late Friday afternoon.
- Senators are still trying to reach a time agreement on the stopgap funding package, but they have agreed to give Budd a vote on his hemp amendment at a 50-vote threshold.
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) introduced his budget resolution to kick off reconciliation 3.0. It would, among other things, provide money for the Pentagon to restock munitions used in Iran.
- But even with a 50-vote threshold, it's expected to fail because of GOP defections.
- Thune is trying to deflect MAGA anger over the Senate's failure to pass the SAVE America Act with a vote on a much narrower bill that would establish a national voter ID standard. But with a 60-vote threshold and no Democratic support, it's headed for defeat.
The bottom line: Nothing has been easy about getting out of town. Late Thursday, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) refused to agree to a time limit on the continuing resolution unless he received a vote on adjournment.
- But the way out of it is the same: taking a tough vote to catch an earlier flight.
