Former President Trump and the oil industry are sketching out audacious plans to begin dismantling President Biden's fossil fuel regulations on Jan. 20, 2025:

• At Mar-a-Lago last month, Trump asked some of the industry's top executives to help raise $1 billion for his campaign as he outlined his pro-drilling agenda for a second term, the Washington Post first reported.
• Separately, oil industry officials have begun drafting the text of oven-ready executive orders to start reversing the Biden administration's green policies on day one of Trump's presidency, according to Politico.

Why it matters: The remarkably transactional Mar-a-Lago pitch underscores how much Trump — who famously vowed to "drain the swamp" of special interests — is tying his campaign fortunes to the oil and gas industry.

• In many respects, it's a symbiotic relationship: Trump's campaign is cash-strapped, and the oil industry's deep pockets are a logical place to turn for a candidate who has promised to "drill, baby, drill."

The big picture: In a campaign packed with split screens, the contrast between Trump and Biden on fossil fuels and climate change is among the most stark.

• Biden has called climate change an "existential threat" and signed the most ambitious climate law in U.S. history; Trump has called climate change a "hoax" and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement.
• Biden said in the final 2020 presidential debate that he would "transition away from the oil industry"; Trump has said he would be a dictator on "day one" so that he could "drill, drill, drill."

Between the lines: Fossil fuel production and profits have soared to record highs under the Biden administration — an irony that geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer dubbed the "hush-hush" oil boom.

• Some oil executives say the industry has flourished in spite of Biden's regulatory blitz — not because of anything his administration has done.

What they're saying: "Donald Trump is selling out working families to Big Oil for campaign checks. It's that simple," the Biden campaign said in a statement.

The other side: "Joe Biden is controlled by environmental extremists who are trying to implement the most radical energy agenda in history and force Americans to purchase electric vehicles they can't afford," Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

Read more

With hurricane season set to begin June 1 and wildfire risk gradually ratcheting up as well, the pullback by private insurers from danger zones is coming into sharper focus.

Why it matters: In certain states — particularly Florida, California and Louisiana — private insurers are fleeing areas considered at high risk. It's leaving so-called "residual," or last resort plans, to pick up the tab.

• But these state-run insurers, as is the case in Florida, may not be able to cover all the losses in the event a major hurricane strikes a heavily populated area.

Driving the news: Forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are worrisome, with record-warm tropical waters likely to combine with a developing La Niña in the Pacific to yield an unusually active one.

Zoom in: A new Moody's report on homeowners insurance finds Florida has about 2.9 million homes and $580 billion at risk of a potential hit by a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.

• In other states like California, other perils such as wildfires are driving insurance flight, and a growth of residual insurers.
• In 2023, more than 80% of the country saw a double-digit homeowners insurance rate increase, with up to a 30% increase in some states. This is expected to continue as insurers retreat, Moody's found.

The intrigue: Major insurers like Allstate and State Farm have stopped issuing new policies or decided not to renew existing ones in increasingly risky states, helping residual plans to take off.

What they're saying: "The topic of insurability is only going to grow more important as natural catastrophe risk continues to accelerate," Steve Bowen, Gallagher Re's chief science officer, said in an email.

Go deeper

⚖️ Lawsuits are rolling in against the Environmental Protection Agency's recently issued CO2 standards for power plants, one of the largest emissions sources.

• Why it matters: They will test EPA's running room following a 2022 Supreme Court ruling that curbed what agencies can do without
  clear congressional blessing. A pending high court case could remove more discretion.
• State of play: West Virginia and Indiana led 25 GOP state attorneys general in one appellate petition, while the National Mining Association — which represents coal producers — along with others also filed cases.

🏦 Big banks reported "significant data and modeling challenges in estimating climate-related financial risks" in an analytical exercise with the Federal Reserve.

• The big picture: That's one takeaway in the Fed's report on its first "climate scenario analysis" undertaken with Bank of America, Citigroup, and four other giants.
• Why it matters: The Fed wants a better sense of how climate change could affect financial stability, but Chairman Jerome Powell says he's not looking to regulate.

💵 The Energy Department hopes to corral more private finance for energy transition by creating a nonprofit foundation.

• Catch up quick: DOE yesterday announced the inaugural board of the Foundation for Energy Security and Innovation, tapping boldface names in energy circles for its first such nonprofit affiliate.
• Go deeper: Axios Pro: Climate Deals' Katie Fehrenbacher had the scoop on the board. Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro for a steady diet of exclusives and smart analysis.

This chart nicely captures something I touched on earlier this week: China's dominance in manufacturing low-carbon energy tech.

Why it matters: "Clean" manufacturing has a growing economic footprint, and there's increasing competition to capture the economic upside of the energy transition.

The bottom line: The U.S. is becoming a bigger player, but playing lots of catch-up.

👀 Another departure at Tesla: Head of product launches Rich Otto is leaving after nearly seven years, he said in a LinkedIn post viewed by Axios and others, but that's no longer publicly available.

• Why it matters: It's the latest change during a volatile stretch, even by the standards of Tesla and its mercurial CEO Elon Musk. Recent weeks have brought major layoffs, a pullback on charging, and more.
• Threat level: Otto's post praised Tesla, but also said layoffs are "rocking the company and its morale" and that it's "hard to see the long-game."

🚘 Via Car and Driver, Lucid has "confirmed it will build a new high-volume mid-size electric SUV with a starting price 'around $48,000.'" Production is targeted to launch in 2026.

• Why it matters: It signals entry of the luxury EV maker, which has seen financial struggles, into lower-price markets.

That's the share of coauthors of recent UN climate science panel reports who see global temps rising at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) above preindustrial levels this century, per a Guardian survey.

Why it matters: It suggests widespread belief among scientists that long-term warming won't be held under 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.

• Those are Paris Agreement targets for avoiding some highly dangerous outcomes beyond damage already unfolding globally.

The big picture: The Guardian surveyed hundreds of scientists who worked on influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports since 2018.

• If there's a silver lining, few see an utterly catastrophic rise of 3.5°C (6.3°F) or more.