You've seen the meme, in one form or another.

• "Born too late to deploy to the Middle East," it reads.
• "Born too early to deploy to the Middle East," it continues.
• "Born just in time to deploy to the Middle East," it concludes.

Why it matters: Flippant? Yes. Compelling? Also yes, as the image's virality today reflects just how entangled the U.S. is in the troubled region, even as it promises to pivot more fully to the Chinese and Russian threat.

• This is geopolitical tug of war, spiked with public cynicism.

Driving the news: Surprise strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using B-2 Spirit bombers and 100-plus other aircraft marked Washington's latest foray into the Middle East, where for decades it's expended taxpayer dollars and lives. (Think Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.)

• Meanwhile, the Pentagon frets over Beijing and Moscow and their global ambitions. But the resources needed for that competition — including heavy-duty, traditional military hardware like aircraft carriers — are in high demand elsewhere.

Friction point: "There is a disconnect between what we, the United States, say in our national defense strategies and those sorts of products and what actually happens on the ground," Brian Carter, a Middle East expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told me.

• "The problem is: We episodically prioritize the Middle East over China," he said. "We haven't been good about ensuring that we put enough effort into the Middle East to make sure that things don't spiral out of control."
• "When we have to surge all this stuff in, we're always reactive."

Between the lines: Pentagon officials and military leaders have been hinting at this dynamic.

• Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, has long lobbied for prioritizing China over Europe and the Middle East. During his March confirmation hearing, Colby told senators the U.S. lacks "a multi-war military."
• Indo-Pacific Command boss Adm. Samuel Paparo in November said support provided to Israel and Ukraine was "eating into" some of the most precious U.S. weapons stockpiles. In April, he revealed it took at least 73 flights to move a Patriot air-defense battalion out of China's backyard and into Central Command.
• And most recently — just days ago — Acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. James Kilby told lawmakers the Navy is chewing through Standard Missile-3s at "an alarming rate." The service has used more than $1 billion in munitions fighting Houthi rebels near the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the USS Harry S. Truman has lost three Super Hornet aircraft, including one to friendly fire.

Zoom out: "The Middle East is the space where four things come together," Daryl Press, the faculty director at the Davidson Institute for Global Security, told me.

1. "It's terrorism and terrorist groups."
2. "It's nuclear weapons and potential for proliferation."
3. "It's the world's most important exportable energy supplies."
4. "And then it's a bunch of countries which have, I would say, somewhat weak control over their borders and airspace."

The bottom line: "This is the part of the world that continually draws the United States into conflict," Press said. "And it's not an accident."

Go deeper: The American war too few talk about

It's too soon to tell whether President Trump's April executive order meant to expedite arms sales to foreign militaries will help or hurt the often complicated process, Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Penn.) told me.

Why it matters: Widespread adoption of American weapons is a sign of power, both hard and soft.

• Dean is among the dozen lawmakers assigned to the House Foreign Arms Sales Task Force, an offshoot of the chamber's Foreign Affairs Committee.

What they're saying: "I worry about all of the president's executive orders because they are haphazard," Dean said at an Axios event last week in Washington.

• "We do not want a system of foreign military sales, for example, that is just haphazard," she said.

State of play: The value of weapons, services and other activities handled by the foreign military sales system in fiscal 2024 totaled $118 billion.

• That's a nearly 46% increase compared with fiscal 2023, according to the State Department.
• Notifications made to Congress included tanks for Bahrain and Romania, helicopters for South Korea and Greece, and missiles for Poland and Norway.

Catch up quick: The bipartisan task force launched in March with the stated goal of "crafting legislative reforms to ensure the foreign arms sales process meets the demands of the future." Trump's foreign sales fiat rolled out weeks later.

What's next: "We are the technology wizards. We want to keep that. We want to maintain that," Dean told me.

• "As we see with Ukraine and other conflicts, more and more of what is going to happen is going to be done autonomously, without manned vehicles. We want to be at the forefront of that."

The Trump administration is icing the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX futuristic fighter in favor of the Air Force counterpart, the F-47, amid concerns U.S. defense contractors can't handle both.

Why it matters: The highly secretive project has for months been in limbo.

• An F/A-XX contract announcement was supposed to quickly follow F-47 news, according to Reuters, but never materialized.

Driving the news: Officials at the Pentagon told reporters the fiscal 2026 budget blueprint includes $74 million to finish design of the Navy warplane. They also said there is debate at the highest levels about its future.

• "We did make a strategic decision to go all-in on F-47, with a $3.4 billion request for that program, due to our belief that the industrial base can only handle going fast on one program at this time and the presidential priority [is] to go all-in on that F-47 and get that program right," one official said.

Catch up quick: Boeing and Northrop Grumman are in the running for F/A-XX. The former bested Lockheed Martin in March for the multibillion-dollar F-47 contract, via the Next Generation Air Dominance effort.

Friction point: Boeing executives pushed back on the narrative that it — and others — can't juggle.

• "From day one, capital investment was for both programs. We've done the same with our technology. We've done the same with our staffing," Steve Parker, the CEO of Boeing's defense business, told reporters at the Paris Air Show.
• "Absolutely, we can do it. And so can the industrial base. And so can the engine manufacturers. I don't really see that as being an issue."

What we're watching: The Navy could end up with a tailored version of the F-47 instead.

Go deeper: Trump wants two new cutting-edge fighter jets: F-22 Super and F-55

💽 Defense contractors working with Israel are at particular risk of hacks launched by Iran's proxies, the U.S. government warned.

• Why it matters: "Hacktivists and Iranian-government-affiliated actors routinely target poorly secured U.S. networks and internet-connected devices for disruptive cyberattacks," the NSA, FBI and other agencies said in a joint announcement.
• 💭 My thought bubble: I hit on this dynamic, and the concerns of the Defense Information Systems Agency, in 2023. Check out that piece here.

🤑 The Pentagon's fiscal 2026 spending proposal includes $13.4 billion for autonomy and autonomous systems, including $9.4 billion for unmanned and remotely piloted aircraft, according to defense officials.

• Why it matters: It's budget season.
• 💭 My thought bubble: Is this too little, just enough or an embarrassment of riches? Reply to this email and let me know.

🔌 Electra inked a nearly $2 million contract with the U.S. Army to explore hybrid-electric propulsion, including modeling and simulation and flight testing.

• Why it matters: "This work gives the Army a clear path forward in understanding how hybrid-electric technologies can support real operational demands, while enabling entirely new logistics capabilities," Donn Yates, an Electra executive, said in a statement.
• 💭 My thought bubble: This news follows word that Electra and Lockheed Martin's clandestine Skunk Works division are collaborating on the former's EL9 aircraft.

🚢 The Italian navy tapped Fincantieri for two new multi-mission combat ships in the "light plus" configuration. The company expects to deliver them in 2029 and 2030.

• Why it matters: The deal is valued at €700 million, or about $820 million.
• 💭 My thought bubble: The unusual dynamic here? This pair backfills another pair Italy previously transferred to Indonesia.

This week's conversation is with Daniel Robinson, the CEO of Red 6.

• We linked up in Orlando a few weeks back, and I got to try his company's airborne augmented reality gear.
• The snack selection was pretty solid, too.

Why he matters: Robinson is an F-22 and Tornado pilot turned defense-tech executive.

Q: When you hear "future of defense," what comes to mind?

A: Software-defined systems that are flexible, agile and customizable.

Q: When will wars be waged solely by robots?

A: In the movies.

Q: What's the biggest challenge the defense industry faces at the moment? What can be done to alleviate it?

A: Training is an existential crisis for the defense industry, and the adoption of next-generation technologies, such as the Advanced Tactical Augmented Reality System, will fundamentally transform how we train.

Q: What region of the world should we be watching? Why?

A: The South China Sea.

• The Chinese Communist Party has a stated geopolitical intent; they've not made it a secret to anyone. We are faced, for the first time in a long time, with a genuine peer adversary.

Q: How many emails do you get a day, and how do you deal with them?

A: I try not to deal with emails at all. That's why I have a chief of staff. I do all of my work over text message.

Q: What's your secret to a successful overnight flight?

A: Bourbon.

Q: What advice would you give your younger self?

A: Don't hide your light under a bushel.

Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) last month reintroduced legislation that bans entities controlled by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea from scooping up land near U.S. military bases.

Why it matters: "China is trying to put facilities near our bases," Rounds told me onstage at an Axios event in Washington last week.

• "If they put up a big building, they can put ... antennas and sensing systems inside just to learn more about how we do business," he said.
• "We've got to be able to protect our land and protect our assets from their spying."

Zoom in: South Dakota is home to Ellsworth Air Force Base, where B-1 Lancers are kept. Nevada has the National Security Site, where nuclear-weapons work is done.

Go deeper: Tech race with China is top intel priority, deputy CIA director says