Ukraine's "Spiderweb" drone assault is a wake-up call for all
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A man controls an FPV drone from a dugout in Ukraine. Photo: Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform via Getty Images
Ukraine on Sunday targeted Russian air bases as far from the front lines as Siberia using cheap, explosive drones sprung from semi-trucks.
- If you didn't already appreciate the utility and consequence of small unmanned aerial vehicles, you should now.
The big picture: Just as the adoption of the Minié ball made the Civil War far deadlier, the proliferation of inexpensive drones is making military assets everywhere, including in the U.S., more vulnerable.
Threat level: The coordinated "Spiderweb" attack — about a year and a half in the making, employing 117 drones across multiple time zones — has global implications. Among them:
- The cost curve cannot be ignored. Prized, nuclear-capable bombers doomed by tools that can be slapped together in a trench or garage? Do the math.
- A lack of air defenses and hardened shelters is foolish at best, negligent at worst. Tom Karako, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the moment as "a new missile age" in which "everybody has to look up."
- Almost everything is in range. If Ukrainian operatives can go undetected for months and sneak so close to Russian perimeters while locked and loaded, so too can China. Panic a few years ago over land grabs near American installations now feels prescient.
- Shipping container subterfuge is the real deal. The Gravehawk, developed by the U.K. and Denmark, amounts to overhead protections in a box. Meanwhile, the 2024 China Military Power Report warned Beijing may be a building a "launcher that can fit inside a standard commercial shipping container for covert employment of" YJ-18 missiles aboard merchant ships.
What they're saying: "The paradigm shift we're witnessing isn't just about drones, it's about the fundamental collapse of traditional defense and security thinking," Aaditya Devarakonda, the CEO of Dedrone by Axon, told Axios.
- "The real challenge isn't just detecting these threats; it's accepting that we're now operating in an environment where attackers can spend hundreds to destroy billions of dollars of equipment," he said.
- "Our security and response systems need to match that speed and asymmetry."
My thought bubble: You can bet the farm the next time a reporter asks about lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, some military official name-drops Spiderweb.
Zoom out: Ukraine's security service, the SBU, said Russian wreckage totaled $7 billion. Western analysts are poring over satellite imagery to confirm the degree of destruction.
- Forty-one aircraft were hit, according to the service's initial public tally. Targets included A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 warplanes.
- Russia has very few A-50 surveillance aircraft still in use; losing even one would be a major blow. Disabling strategic bombers also hampers the country's nuclear capabilities.
- "This puts to bed the 'well Ukraine is a very specific use case' argument," Dan Magy, CEO of California-based Firestorm Labs, told Axios. "Because of the size and cost of drones, creativity can be unconstrained when it comes to disruptive missions."
Yes, but: Russia can still very much reach out and punch Ukraine in the mouth.
- Moscow has plenty of ballistic missiles and variants of the Iranian Shahed UAV at its disposal.
The bottom line: Ukraine's operation was "very impressive from a military-science perspective," George Barros, the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, said in an interview.
- "This is really pushing the boundaries on what we think is possible," he added. "No one thought that FPV drones made from 3D-printed carbon fiber and Chinese components could be used to take out, reportedly, one-third of Russia's Tupolev 95 fleet."
Go deeper: Trump silent on Ukraine drone attacks as MAGA blames "Deep State"
