China's corruption calculus

Chinese President Xi Jinping is struggling in his quest to combat corruption. The issue is so pervasive that U.S. analysts made it a focal point in an annual blue-chip study of the People's Liberation Army.

Why it matters: Shortcuts and self-dealing could slow China's plans to invade Taiwan, the biggest flashpoint between Beijing and Washington.

• "For any military, this level of corruption would be a crisis," Christian Le Miere, the CEO of defense consultancy Arcipel, told me.
• "When Xi first came to power, he could blame it on his predecessors. Now he is investigating corrupt officials that he himself promoted and installed."

High-profile investigations and removals may disrupt military modernization goals for 2027, according to the China Military Power Report published Wednesday. Meantime, Taiwan continues "to improve defensive resilience through a whole-of-society approach."

• More than a dozen Chinese defense and contracting bigwigs got the boot between July and December 2023.
• That includes then-Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who dropped from the public eye. Several others who were investigated were involved with nuclear and conventional missile projects.
• Procurement purges suggest there are "significant issues" within the system, "and that this might specifically be undermining the capabilities of China's missile forces," Brian Hart at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told me.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) said he was unsurprised by the findings, as "dictatorships run by rule of gun are fueled by corruption, which would indeed hurt the readiness and firepower of the People's Liberation Army."

Friction point: The U.S. considers China its most serious national security threat. Its industries buttress Russian President Vladimir Putin's war machine, and its cyber forces stalk American critical infrastructure.

• That's not changing anytime soon.
• "The Chinese Communist Party is our top strategic threat — they bankroll both war criminal Putin and the regime in Tehran, and are watching our response to Ukraine as they plan to invade Taiwan," Wilson said.

• A Senate Republican aide separately told me the "reality is that China continues to heavily invest across all domains, including in the PLA, shipbuilding, space technology, sixth-generation fighters, long-range fires, hypersonics, and other sophisticated military capabilities."

Flashback: Xi promised a corruption crackdown when he took power.

• "Dating back many years, they've talked about a campaign that would target 'from tigers to flies,'" a senior U.S. defense official told reporters this week.

What's next: In remarks shared publicly just days ago, Xi suggested turning "the knife inward."

• That generated headlines and caught the Pentagon's attention.
• It also shows Xi will continue his anti-corruption crusade.