Oreshnik missile strike on Ukraine was Putin "saber rattling," experts say
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Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP
Russia's attack on Ukraine that used an "experimental" intermediate-range ballistic missile dubbed Oreshnik was messaging, not mass destruction.
Why it matters: The Nov. 21 salvo underscored how little recourse Moscow has to Western aid — like Army Tactical Missile Systems — once deemed red lines.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is "running out of things to do, apart from puffing up his chest and making a lot of noise," Stephen Schwartz, an independent expert on nuclear weapons and policy, told Axios.
- "He's done and said any number of things, and they have not stopped what the United States and NATO and Ukraine are doing."
Our thought bubble: Trafficking fighters from Yemen, resorting to North Korean reinforcements and testing a nuclear-capable missile in a war that was supposed to last only days are not signs of confidence.
- A lot of people also made a lot of noise about Russia's updated nuclear doctrine. But as expert Jeffrey Lewis put it on X: "Same wine, new bottle."
Catch up quick: The rollout of Oreshnik, a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh, scrambled the weapons-watching and content-creating worlds.
- What was used? (Ukrainian and Western assessments clashed.) Where'd it hit? (Dnipro.) Who knew ahead of time? (The U.S., through nuclear risk-reduction channels.)
- Videos posted on X, Bluesky and other forums showed objects streaking through the sky and landing without so much as a fireball.
Context: Whatever the U.S. and other governments knew about Oreshnik and the RS-26 is now beefier. Every launch offers a peek inside the armory and a foothold for future defense.
- Ukrainian authorities showed remains of a missile they had not seen before to journalists over the weekend, AFP reported.
- Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon deputy press secretary, declined to say if early detection systems spotted the attack.
Yes, but: "It's not about tactical battlefield effects from this thing," Tom Karako, the director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview. "This was saber rattling, first and foremost."
What's next: A single missile doesn't matter. Putin gets this.
- He promised continued trials, snowballing into mass production. But take this with a grain of salt.
