As some companies decide to bring workers back to the office, Detroit expects that it will lose less income tax revenue moving forward.

Why it matters: The pandemic continues to drive a lot of unknowns about the economy. Changing trends in where people work factor into how Detroit estimates how much tax money it's going to make so it can then decide how to spend on services for residents.

• But making these predictions is exceptionally tricky nowadays, experts agreed at the city's biannual revenue estimating conference yesterday.

Catch up quick: People with jobs in Detroit proper who live elsewhere don't have to pay city income taxes for the hours they work outside the city, which led to big tax dollar losses for the commuter-heavy city starting in 2020.

• That loss was estimated at $85 million for 2021, but ended up better than predicted: $55 million.

The latest: Over the next several years, annual losses are predicted at $25-$29 million, revised down from the $32-$45 million range predicted last year, per a city presentation.

• A city like Detroit that relies heavily on income tax feels these losses more deeply, so the slightly rosier figures are a welcome change for officials.
• But still, lower income tax revenue due to remote work is the permanent new normal, city financial officials said.

Yes, but: Other experts weighed in with some reservations about the figures, saying the "new normal" has not yet been established and more evidence is needed.

The big picture: Amid this age of uncertainty in revenue forecasting, the city is going to be under even more pressure to spend judiciously starting this coming fiscal year.

• It's time for Detroit to resume making payments to its pension funds after a 10-year reprieve post-bankruptcy.
• The estimated $135 million yearly payments represent 12% of the general fund. But the city prepared a Retiree Protection Fund to soften the blow to the budget.

What's next: Mayor Mike Duggan presents a budget for how to spend Detroit's dollars next year to City Council on March 3. Lawmakers will host hearings with various departments and agencies, propose changes to the budget and then vote on it from there.

• Detroit's fiscal years run from July 1-June 30.

Ford is investing $3.5 billion in a factory in Marshall that will make electric vehicle batteries using technology licensed from a major Chinese supplier.

Why it matters: The plant, which is expected to create 2,500 high-paying jobs, is part of a burgeoning U.S. supply chain for EVs — but comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, Axios What's Next's Joann Muller reports.

Details: The plant will make battery cells using technology from Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), the world’s largest producer of EV batteries.

• The so-called LFP batteries (for lithium, iron and phosphate) are less expensive because they don't include expensive minerals like cobalt and nickel. That will help bring down the cost of electric cars.

The intrigue: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, withdrew his state's bid for Ford's venture with CATL last month after describing it as a "Trojan horse" for the Communist Party of China.

Read more

👨 The CEO of Rocket Companies, Jay Farner, is retiring. He's been with the mortgage giant since 1996 and CEO since it went public in August 2020. (Free Press)

🛩️ A U.S. fighter jet shot down an unidentified object above Lake Huron, east of the Upper Peninsula, on Sunday afternoon. It is the fourth high-altitude object-related incident over the United States and Canada in recent days. (Detroit News)

💸 The Detroit Land Bank is paying the federal government a $1.5 million settlement over claims it failed to substantiate millions in contractor payments from 2017-19. (Metro Times)

Quote du jour

"We expect the Detroit economy to avoid the worst of a national recession if we do have one, and one big reason why is the backlog of demand in the auto industry."

Now that we got our first round bye out of the way, it's time to vote for Detroit in the second round of the Axios Local pizza tournament.

Driving the news: After it (barely) beat D.C. in the first round, we're now taking on Boston to get to the quarterfinals.

• We're supposed to use this space to talk trash about our opponent's pizza, but hey — if you voluntarily live in Boston you could probably use a W.

Remember: The winning city gets an Axios pizza party.

Vote here until 3pm

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What a stat — the average U.S. executive spends 23 hours a week in meetings, up from 10 in the 1960s, according to a recent MIT Sloan Management Review study.

Why it matters: Hours spent in meetings — many of which could be shortened or canceled entirely — are leaving us little time to be productive and creative, Axios Finish Line writes.

The latest: Some companies are now giving employees time back.

• Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke recently mandated a calendar purge that will eliminate more than 76,500 hours of corporate meetings, Axios Communicators' Eleanor Hawkins reports.

📬 Hit reply to tell us: Has how your workplace handled meetings changed since the height of the pandemic?

• We may feature your response in a future newsletter.