Stablecoins and regulatory structure have been the big focus for the crypto industry's legislative efforts, and three scenarios have emerged that provide the best chance for either one of them to pass before January.

Why it matters: The lame duck session of Congress — the period between the election and the swearing in of newly elected members — might not be lame at all for the blockchain industry.

The most likely path to new legislation, based on takeaways from multiple conversations with Congressional staffers, is that stablecoin legislation gets linked to either the Defense Authorization Act or the end-of-the year budget renewal.

• The second is that a market structure bill — legislation that defines how cryptocurrencies get regulated more broadly, and by which agency — also gets attached.
• The third scenario involves stables and market structure as part of standalone financial services legislation that deals with crypto and banking rules for legal marijuana dispensaries (a.k.a. the SAFER Banking Act).

Zoom out: Stablecoins have been the most successful crypto product, with tens of trillions of dollars in annual volume and nearly $200 billion in liquid assets backing them.

• The market's size and their growing role in payments have drawn bipartisan calls for regulation in order to preserve U.S. dollar dominance, combat illicit actors, and protect consumers.
• On regulation, the biggest question has been when a sale of a crypto asset falls under the authority of the Securities and Exchange Commission. So far, that has been up to the agency to determine, but Congress looks likely to set guidelines — someday.

Reality check: The most likely scenario is the fourth one — the one crypto lobbyists believe: that Congress puts the issue off entirely until the next session.

What we're watching: Four significant legislators have incentive or motivation to act now, however.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) chair of Senate Agriculture, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), chair of House Financial Services, and its ranking member, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), are all highly motivated to pass some kind of legislation before year's end.

One wildcard is Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

• The crypto industry just spent $40 million against him in his reelection race.

What's next: The election. Once everyone knows who is coming back and who's not next year, they can start making deals.

Go deeper

Prediction markets are misnamed.

• They are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a given moment in time — not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.

The intrigue: The public may judge the success of prediction markets based on the outcome of the election, with a Donald Trump victory meaning the markets were right all along, while a Kamala Harris win means they messed up.

• That's not necessarily fair. It's like "claiming the stock market fails to value companies accurately simply because share prices change over time," says Lloyd Danzig, managing partner at Sharp Alpha, an investment firm focused on sports, gaming and entertainment.

Flashback: Hillary Clinton's odds of winning in 2016 on PredictIt were 82% the day before Election Day.

• Bookies put 90% odds on U.K. voters rejecting Brexit. That's not what happened.

💭 Brady's thought bubble: This darn line has gyrated so wildly, I don't know what the heck anyone thinks they could have "learned" by watching it.

Fun fact: The other hot prediction market, Kalshi, isn't paying out the presidential market until Inauguration Day (see "Timeline and payout"), because...things have been crazy lately. Can you blame them?

Go deeper

Two mega crypto investors met on YouTube to debate the presidential election.

Zoom in: Galaxy Digital's Michael Novogratz and Sequoia Capital's Shaun Maguire debated Harris v. Trump through a crypto lens on the Unchained podcast, while Superstate's Robert Leshner moderated.

• Novogratz, the Harris supporter, concedes that Trump would be better for crypto investors from the beginning, but also asserts that the sector will, in fact, be fine under either administration.
• Intriguingly, he predicts — seemingly based on his private contact with her people — Harris pushing legislation in the lame duck if she wins, just to get it off her agenda.

💭 My thought bubble: It's an interesting conversation. Maguire — one of the industry's earliest open Trump supporters — makes some unorthodox assertions, basing it on professional experiences with the prior Trump administration that he doesn't detail.

• Both unequivocally condemn President Biden's handling of the industry.

What they're saying: Novogratz urges listeners to stay involved, no matter who wins.

• "After that election, if you want to have impact, people create policy," he says.

💰 Fairshake PAC now has $78 million ready for 2026. (Axios)

🎮 Blockchain gaming firm Immutable says it has been warned of an SEC lawsuit, joining the ranks of Uniswap, Kraken, OpenSea, Coinbase and others. (Decrypt)

🇸🇬 Singapore's financial regulator likes real-world asset tokenization. (CoinDesk)

📱 There was a big party for Pavel Durov in Dubai, but France wouldn't let him go. (DL News)

Fairshake.com once belonged to a for-profit company, but all that's left of it is a website devoted to sharing information about consumers' rights.

• Its editors have updated the front page to critique the Fairshake family of PACs which have dropped over $100 million into this year's presidential election.

Flashback: Here's what it looked like in March — it appears to be the top result for anyone that googles "fairshake."

• (Hat tip to Molly White for pointing out the flip)

Editor's note: This report has been corrected to note that Fairshake.com's original owner was a for-profit company.