President Trump told voters to pretend he's on the ballot. Apparently they're listening:

• With midterms 38 days away, Republicans coast to coast are getting pulled under by a violent undertow fueled by Trump's unpopularity, Axios' Marc Caputo, Hans Nichols and Alex Isenstadt report.

Why it matters: It's looked bad for Republicans all year, but this week felt different — like the political environment was disintegrating in real time, one ominous data point after another.

• Most worrisome for the GOP, there's virtually no chance the war ends, inflation cools, interest rates fall, consumer confidence rises, and economic optimism surges before the Nov. 3 election.

💡 Lingo du jour: Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook writes that while "many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others."

• That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good. They're just better than those of Republicans.

👂 Start with mood music: This week, Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.5%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.

• Gas prices rose to $4.49 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.
• Grocery prices are still rising year over year. Mortgage rates hit 7%, and the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.

🗳️ Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.

• The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
• "We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," a national Republican pollster told us. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"

Only in Michigan do Republicans see glimmers of hope to pick up a Senate seat because Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is seen by some as so radical that he has "scared the shit out of our people to want to vote," the GOP pollster said. "But even then, in this environment, who knows?"

• What once looked like a longshot for Democrats — taking control of the Senate by flipping four Republican-held seats on a map favoring the GOP — looks increasingly plausible.

⚡ On the House side, Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats yesterday. They need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.

• Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.

State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.

• In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.
• Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.

💰 The other side: A Trump adviser downplayed the GOP tremors, pointing to the Republicans' massive cash advantage.

• "If we execute and our people show up, it's a different ballgame," the adviser said. "There's more than a month to go."

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OpenAI disclosed dozens of incidents in which its models behaved in ways it has deemed problematic, including leaking more than 50 images from ChatGPT users online.

• Why it matters: This is the first publicly known example of the company's agents mishandling user data — and the latest example of a budding rogue agent problem at OpenAI, Axios' Madison Mills reports.

📸 State of play: OpenAI said that some of its agents sent data from its internal training and testing systems to outside websites, including user images, as reported first by Reuters.

• The company identified 53 instances in which images that users put into ChatGPT were then posted to image-hosting sites.
• The images came from users whose ChatGPT data was eligible to be used for model training because they hadn't opted out.
• OpenAI said it has worked with hosting providers to remove most of the images. It's still trying to remove the rest.

Read on.

The economics of electric 18-wheelers have long been tough. But record diesel prices are suddenly making the equation more compelling, Axios' Nathan Bomey and Joann Muller report.

• Tesla's long-delayed electric Semi is finally going into mass production at a new Nevada factory. The long-range version can travel 500 miles on a fully loaded charge and regain up to 60% of its range in 30 minutes, Tesla says.

Keep reading.

Americans' views of socialism have reached a record high, with 43% saying they view it positively, Axios' Neal Rothschild writes from a new Gallup poll.

• Why it matters: President Trump has called democratic socialists the "biggest threat to our nation." But congressional Republican candidates are being warned that socialism isn't a strong attack line.

💥 By the numbers: The share of Americans who feel positively about socialism jumped from 39% to 43% in the past year.

• That shift came entirely from independents: positive views of socialism rose 8 points among that group since last year, to 45%.

Reality check: Socialism remains less popular than capitalism, which 55% of Americans view positively.

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President Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to halt any assistance to Iran when the two spoke during the state visit, U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue told CNBC's "Squawk Box" yesterday.

• Why it matters: China's economic, intelligence and military support for Iran has undermined Trump's effort to isolate the country amid the ongoing war. The U.S. is conducting a massive economic pressure campaign against Iran. But without Chinese cooperation, it'll only be partially effective, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

The other side: According to Chinese state media, Xi urged Trump to de-escalate with Iran by returning to the June memorandum of understanding and reaching a nuclear deal.

• Read on.

Trump last night posted a map of the Middle East with the Strait of Hormuz relabeled as "TRUMP STRAIT," joining a presidential fantasy map collection that this month has included New Mexico as "New America" plus all of North America as part of the U.S. (extending to Greenland and Iceland).

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) has spent more taxpayer money on travel than any other senator's office since the fall of 2024 — including $625,000 on private charter companies, according to an analysis of public disclosures provided to Axios' Stef W. Kight.

• Why it matters: Senators routinely fly between Washington and their home states on taxpayers' dime. But only a handful regularly rely on private flights.

🔎 Between the lines: Many senators with the biggest travel bills live in remote or large states, where there can be fewer commercial flight options home and longer routes to visit constituents across the state.

• There had been no flights leaving Pierre, S.D., that worked with the Senate schedule. So Rounds took chartered flights to Minnesota before flying commercial, with approval from the Senate Rules Committee, a spokesperson told Axios.

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Silicon Valley titans, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, will join President Trump in Washington on Tuesday as he unveils a new website, America.gov, that deploys AI to help citizens navigate the U.S. government.

• A White House official tells me: "President Trump, Vice President Vance, other Administration officials, and industry leaders will attend an event Tuesday that showcases the launch of a new website designed to help Americans access federal information and resources that are currently scattered across numerous government agencies. The all-day event will be held at Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium and will include panel discussions on artificial intelligence, energy dominance, health, space and agriculture."

Fall color is expected across most of the country by mid-October, Axios' Jim Sergent writes.

• But weather could scramble the timetable: A strong El Niño could raise temperatures and delay some peak colors, according to the National Weather Service.

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