President-elect Trump's bombastic policy threats, Mar-a-Lago missives and mere presence have become a driving force in markets and capitals around the world — six weeks before his inauguration, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• Why it matters: Only one man occupies the White House. But the norm-busting assertiveness of Trump and his transition team — and the rapidly fading relevance of President Biden — have given the U.S. something of a two-headed presidency.

🖼️ The big picture: "Promises Kept," the Trump transition team boldly declared Monday, claiming achievements on border security, diplomacy, economic growth and anti-diversity initiatives — all before Trump has even taken office.

• The Trump effect is real. But posturing and preparation by companies, allies and adversaries don't necessarily foretell what his record will actually look like once his policies are implemented.

1. Borders: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rushed to Mar-a-Lago this weekend after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in response to migrants and fentanyl crossing into the U.S.

• The two leaders ate dinner together during a three-hour social evening. Trudeau promised to deploy additional helicopters and drones to help tighten the northern border — earning praise from Trump.
• Trump spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and declared that she had agreed to effectively close the southern border — a message Sheinbaum contradicted in her own account of the call.

2. Foreign policy: Even as Biden officials have worked feverishly to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz credited Trump with bringing them to the table.

• Trump's team also claimed credit for Iran's apparent decision not to retaliate against Israel for its October attack, touting the doctrine of "peace through strength."

🌐 Trump has fully re-engaged in diplomacy by tweet — promising "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if the Gaza hostages aren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20.

• Still, plenty of global hotspots — Syria, Ukraine, even South Korea — appear to be heating up, not cooling down, as Trump prepares to take office.

3. Economy: Trump loves nothing more than to take credit for a booming stock market. And there are plenty of indications his business-friendly agenda is preemptively powering record highs — especially in crypto.

• But Wall Street has been defying gravity for years now. Trump is fortunate to be inheriting a remarkably strong economy from Biden — just as Trump inherited a strong economy from Barack Obama in 2017.

One dynamic more directly connected to Trump's return is Walmart's rollback of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives last week — a victory for MAGA activists years in the making.

• Trump on Monday reiterated his campaign pledge to block the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japanese-owned Nippon Steel, sending shares of U.S. Steel tumbling.

👓 Between the lines: Biden's relatively low profile since the election — aside from his controversial pardon of his son Hunter — has only compounded the feeling that Trump is already in power.

• "Ladies and gentlemen, as you know, I'm in the final weeks of my presidency," Biden said yesterday in Angola.
• "You don't have to clap for that. You can if you want," he joked.

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The greater Middle East is erupting. In just six weeks, it's Donald Trump's problem, Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest writes.

• Why it matters: For all the attention paid to technological face-offs with China and measurements of military might in the Indo-Pacific, the pressures of the Middle East will dominate the early days of Trump's Pentagon.

💥 Zoom in: Among major flash points this year...

• Breakthrough fighting in Syria throws Russia off balance and elevates Turkey. The U.S. keeps about 900 troops in the country.
• Houthi attacks off Yemen paralyze global shipping and push U.S. Navy stockpiles into the spotlight.
• Months of war in Gaza, spurred by the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, stress test the U.S.-Israel relationship. A fragile ceasefire is brokered with Lebanon.
• Iran pushes ahead with its nuclear program, earning a jab from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and launches historic but largely intercepted drone and missile barrages.

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President-elect Trump vowed to limit access to gender-affirming care, especially for children. But judges he appointed may have laid the groundwork to save it, Axios' Sam Baker writes.

• Why it matters: The first major post-election referendum on trans health care is happening today at the Supreme Court — and the issue has transcended the court's usual ideological divisions before.

The Court is hearing arguments this morning over a Tennessee law that bans puberty blockers, hormone therapy and surgery for transgender minors.

• The justices' decision will also affect the 20-plus states with similar laws on the books. And it'll inform how the courts handle future cases on trans rights.

👀 What we're watching: Trans people won a surprising victory in 2020, when the court — in a decision written by Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee — ruled that employers cannot fire workers because they're trans.

• The big question today is whether the logic of that decision should also apply to Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care.

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More than 1 in 5 workers in some U.S. cities were still clocking in from home last year, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj write from the latest census data.

• Why it matters: Remote and hybrid schedules have made work vs. life an easier equation for many Americans, including busy working parents.

🧮 By the numbers: Around a quarter of workers in Boulder, Austin and Raleigh were working from home as of 2023.

• Denver and D.C. are also WFH hotspots.

The other side: The trend over the last few months has been a slow but steady return to the land of cubicles, water cooler chitchat and harsh fluorescent lighting.

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President Biden's pardon of his son Hunter has opened the floodgates to a battery of requests from members of Congress in both parties for additional pardons, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• Why it matters: Biden has received more than 10,500 pardon requests over his four years in office but has only issued 25 — a historically low number even for single presidential terms, according to the Justice Department.

Now Biden's controversial pardon has unleashed a wave of pleas on behalf of people convicted or accused of various crimes, including Wikileaks founder Julian Assange and NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden.

• Some lawmakers want Biden to go far bigger than just a few high-profile pardons. Progressives plan a wide-ranging push for Biden to issue sweeping pardons for certain non-violent or low-level offenders.
• Several others have urged Biden to pardon President-elect Trump for actions related to Jan. 6 and his handling of classified documents.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wants a pardon for indigenous activist Leonard Peltier, who was convicted of killing two FBI agents.

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With the inauguration 47 days away, a seven-page prospectus obtained by Axios includes packages for donors giving $50,000 to $1 million, with varying levels of access to:

• A "Make America Great Again Victory Rally" on the Saturday before the inauguration.
• A "Cabinet Reception" with Trump's incoming nominees.
• "An intimate dinner" with Vice President-elect JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance.
• On Sunday, an interfaith "One America, One Light Sunday Service," with President-elect Trump and Melania Trump.
• A candlelight dinner — a "pinnacle event" — with the president-elect and incoming first lady.
• And on Monday, Jan. 20, on the night of the swearing-in, a black-tie "Starlight Ball," with appearances by the Trumps and Vances.

💰 The N.Y. Times' Teddy Schleifer, who reported yesterday on the invitation, notes: "There are no limits on the donations that can be made to the Trump committee, which is structured as a political nonprofit for tax purposes." Gifts over $200 are reported to the FEC.

Amazon made a slew of AI announcements yesterday, including a series of foundation models that aim to rival those from OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, Axios' Ina Fried writes.

• Why it matters: It's part of a strategy that AWS CEO Matt Garman outlined for Axios earlier this year that aims to position Amazon as a key infrastructure provider to the entire AI industry.

Amazon said it's building "Project Rainier," a huge supercomputer with hundreds of thousands of its homegrown Trainium2 chips — with Anthropic as the first customer.

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Move over, gingerbread houses. Charcuterie chalets could become this season's hot culinary construction, Axios Chicago's Monica Eng writes.

• Grocery store chain Aldi launched a two-day "charcuterie chalet" pop-up in Chicago, showcasing elaborate meat, cheese and fruit designs to inspire your holiday entertainment game.

Dig in: Visitors can also check out Chicago's skyline carved from white cheddar (pictured above), while nibbling on samples of the grocer's charcuterie, cheese and chocolate.

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