Axios AM

November 16, 2022
Happy Wednesday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,495 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner.
1 big thing — Scoop: Big Trump defection

Stephen A. Schwarzman — chairman, CEO and co-founder of private-equity giant Blackstone — says in a statement to Axios that he's defecting from former President Trump for the 2024 presidential race:
- "America does better when its leaders are rooted in today and tomorrow, not today and yesterday," Schwarzman says, after Trump's 2024 announcement at Mar-a-Lago last night.
- "It is time for the Republican Party to turn to a new generation of leaders and I intend to support one of them in the presidential primaries."
Why it matters: This is a major defection by a GOP megadonor who was close to Trump — very engaged with him on trade issues — and had real pull in the Trump White House, Jonathan Swan reports.
🖼️ The big picture: This is the second GOP megadonor to come out against Trump in two weeks.
- Ken Griffin — the billionaire founder of the Citadel hedge fund, who had praised Trump policies — endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last week.
- Griffin, who moved Citadel's headquarters to Miami this year, told Bloomberg yesterday that Trump is a "three-time loser."
Between the lines: Two of the country's largest and most influential Republican donors are looking for a next-generation candidate.
- Trump doesn't need the money. But the statements by Schwarzman and Griffin are likely to give cover and backbone to some Republican elected officials to move on.
🥊 Another top Trump backer — his own daughter — announced her detachment from his political career last night.
- Ivanka Trump, a former White House official, said on Instagram, as her dad announced his third run for president:
I love my father very much.
This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family.
I do not plan to be involved in politics. While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena.
I am grateful to have had the honor of serving the American people and I will always be proud of many of our Administration's accomplishments.
2. Trump's low-energy reset

Advisers knew President Trump, bleeding support among Republicans for his wild antics over the past week, needed a reset during last night's 2024 announcement.
- So the text was deliberately low-key.
- Trump's delivery was so restrained, even languid, that it was widely derided as "low energy" — Trump's devastating jab at former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush during the 2016 primaries.
Why it matters: The tightly scripted, staff-driven speech reflected Trump's weakened position post-midterms. None of the cocky swagger and energy of his 2016 announcement, Jonathan Swan reports.
This was a nostalgic, glory-days speech — Trump playing the hits.
- He painted an apocalyptic picture of American decline under President Biden.
- But Trump has done this schtick so many times before that he seemed bored by the text.
- It's not unusual for him to be bored by the words in his teleprompter. But his tone was flatter than usual. Even his ad-libs were low energy.
Behind the scenes: Trump advisers had pushed for the more disciplined approach after Trump found himself on the defensive after Republican midterm losses.
- That prompted him to lash out with unhinged attacks on potential 2024 rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Jeb Bush Jr. helped his dad get the last laugh by tweeting: "What a low energy speech by the Donald. ... #SleepyDonnie."
🔮 What's next — 2024 rematch begins: Trump took on his successor, and possible 2024 opponent, by name.
- "Unlike Biden possibly getting us into World War 3, which can seriously happen, I will keep America out of foolish and unnecessary foreign wars, just as I did for four straight years," Trump said.
Hours before Trump's speech, the White House launched a new webpage, "The Biden-Harris record," highlighting legislative wins, Axios' Sophia Cai first reported.
- White House press official Andrew Bates tweeted while Trump was still speaking: "Bored? A lot of people are. Read about @POTUS's high energy record!"
3. Poland: Missile likely not "intentional attack"

🚨 Breaking: Polish President Andrzej Duda said this morning the explosion near the country's border with Ukraine appears to be an "unfortunate accident," not an "intentional attack," Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes.
- He added that the projectile that caused the blast and killed two people was "most likely" Russian-made, but officials have "no proof at the moment that it was a missile fired by the Russian side."
Duda said it was "very likely" the explosion was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
- Ukraine previously denied it was to blame for the blast. Russia also denied responsibility.
The big picture: The explosion happened on the same day Russia launched one of its biggest barrages of strikes against Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war.
- The Polish president pointed out that many of the missiles fired by Russia targeted western Ukraine.
President Biden said yesterday it was "unlikely" the missile was fired from Russia due to its trajectory.
- Share this story ... Get Axios World.
4. 🚀 Liftoff! NASA's mightiest rocket

NASA's Space Launch System rocket took flight for the first time early this morning, ushering in a new era of exploration for the space agency, Axios Space author Miriam Kramer writes.
- Why it matters: This uncrewed launch — called Artemis I — is expected to pave the way for NASA to one day send astronauts to the Moon for the first time since the end of the Apollo program in the 1970s.
The SLS — which took flight at 1:47 a.m. ET from Cape Canaveral — launched an Orion capsule that will journey around the Moon before coming back to Earth for a splashdown expected in December.

This is effectively a technology test before putting people on board.
- NASA aims to land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon using the SLS and Orion in 2025.
5. Lack of child care keeps record number of parents off job


The number of people who couldn't get to work last month because of child care issues shot up to the highest in the 11 years the government has tracked the data, The Washington Post reports.
- Why it matters: The figures underscore how important child care is to a functioning economy, especially when — as with this fall's triple-demic — more people are sick, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets.
🤧 What's happening: October saw surging levels of respiratory illness in kids — plus COVID, plus the flu.
6. 🥔 New data: Priciest turkey dinner in 36 years

A Thanksgiving meal with all the trimmings is expected to cost 20% more than last year — the most expensive dinner since the American Farm Bureau started the annual survey in 1986.
- Why it matters: Nearly every ingredient in the classic Thanksgiving feast is more expensive. Blame inflation, supply-chain snags and avian flu, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.
In data out this morning, the farm bureau says the average cost of this year’s holiday meal for 10 is $64.05 — up from last year's $53.31.
- A 16-pound turkey costs about $28.96 — almost $5, or 21%, more than the average cost a year ago.
Only one item — a 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries — had a price drop. It's $2.57 — down 14% from last year.
- Go deeper: Chart of ingredient prices + year-by-year meal averages.
7. 📷 America's 7 new senators
The new Democratic and Republican senators took class pictures at the Capitol yesterday:

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer welcomes Sens.-elect Peter Welch of Vermont (left) and the towering John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell poses with (from left) Sens.-elect Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, Ted Budd of North Carolina, Katie Britt of Alabama, J.D. Vance of Ohio and Eric Schmitt of Missouri.
🍿 Go deeper: Phil Singer's Marathon Strategies posts an interactive "Meet the Freshmen" guide to the incoming 118th Congress.
8. 📺 "Yellowstone" win

Kevin Costner's Paramount epic "Yellowstone" reached 12.1 million viewers for the opening night of its fifth season on Sunday — the most popular scripted series episode of the new TV season.
- Why it matters: That it was a cable network series — instead of on a broadcast network — makes the achievement even more impressive, AP's David Bauder writes.
The total viewership involved a little trickery: The show simultaneously aired on Viacom networks CMT, TV Land and Pop, and there were some same-day reruns.
- Even with that, 9.4 million viewers saw the premiere episode on Paramount alone.
🔎 Between the lines: "Yellowstone" appeals to an older audience more used to watching TV in a traditional way, said Josef Adalian, West Coast editor of New York magazine's Vulture.
🧮 Red-blue divide: The show is overwhelmingly popular in red states.
- States with Republican governors — topped by Texas — watch "Yellowstone" three times as much as states with Democratic governors, according to Philo, a live TV streaming service.
Go deeper: See last week's top 20 shows.
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