Intensely personal decisions about children and family are suddenly becoming a fierce political battleground, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.

• Why it matters: The U.S. fertility rate has been steadily falling, mirroring trends in other developed countries, and hit a record low of 1.62 births per woman in 2023.

👀 Driving the news: A growing chorus of conservative pundits, influencers and politicians are promoting a specific, traditional image of family life — and criticizing people who don't live that way.

Sen. JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, has given the pro-natalist movement its biggest platform yet.

• Most recently, he made headlines with a resurfaced 2021 comment calling Vice President Harris and other Democrats "childless cat ladies" who "don't really have a direct stake" in America's future.
• Vance's team says the remark was taken out of context — and referred to America's leadership class, not adults in general who don't have children.

📉 By the numbers: 47% of adults under 50 who don't have kids say they're unlikely to have them — up 10 points from 2018, according to a recent Pew survey.

• Among their reasons: They can't afford it, they want to focus on different things, or they just don't want to.

That trend has very real implications for America's future and economic growth, especially if immigration is limited.

• But experts say simply telling women to have more kids — regardless of whether they want to, whether they're able to, or whether they can afford to — is missing the point.
• "It's legitimately tapping into frustration of what it takes to support a family, but for some reason, it's directing that anger toward professional women," says Laura Lovett, a University of Pittsburgh historian.

The other side: Even though it contends with a real problem, "no matter how you frame the issue, pro-natalism often comes across as extremely strange," N.Y. Times conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes (gift link).

• "The idea of freedom from procreation as a hard-won feminist liberty ... means that any talk about increasing birthrates instantly evokes 'Handmaid's Tale' anxieties about patriarchal coercion."

The latest: Democrats have fought against GOP attempts to rebrand as the "pro-family" party — pointing, for example, to Senate Republicans' rejection of a bipartisan bill this past week that would have expanded the child tax credit.

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Top Democrats have been telling us for several days that although she hasn't made it final, all signs point to Vice President Harris picking Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, as her running-mate. But this weekend saw a flurry of efforts by rival Democratic camps to tank his chances.

• Why it matters: Harris is conducting in-person interviews with finalists in Washington this weekend, and will appear Tuesday in Philadelphia with her choice.

Between the lines: The finalists are six white men. In addition to Shapiro, they include Govs. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, plus Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

The latest: One report has Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) favoring Walz, with a source familiar with her thinking telling The Hill she "is always especially fond of former House colleagues." Walz served six House terms.

• Advisers to Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.) have privately relayed to Harris' team his worries that Shapiro, a long-running rival in Pennsylvania, is excessively focused on personal ambitions, Politico reports.
• Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont said he wants Walz because he "understands the needs of working families."
• UAW President Shawn Fain, said he wants Beshear or Walz. Fain said the union doesn't favor Shapiro because of past support for school vouchers.

🗞️ A 31-year-old clip surfaced from Shapiro's college newspaper, in which he wrote that Palestinians were "too battle-minded" and "peace between Arabs and Israelis is virtually impossible and will never come."

• The opinion piece, "Peace not possible," ran in the Campus Times at the University of Rochester on Sept. 23, 1993.
• Shapiro told reporters Friday that the column doesn't represent his views today: "I was 20."

The U.S. general in charge of American forces in the Middle East arrived in the region yesterday as preparations continue for a possible Iranian attack against Israel in retaliation for the assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

Why it matters: Three U.S. and Israeli officials said they expect Iran to attack Israel as early as tomorrow.

• The U.S. is boosting its forces in the Middle East and sending more warships and fighter jets to the region in preparation, the Pentagon said Friday.
• U.S. officials expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their Apr. 13 attack on Israel, but potentially larger in scope — and it could also involve Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Gen. Michael Kurilla is expected to use the trip to try to mobilize the same international and regional coalition that defended Israel on Apr. 13, a U.S. official said.

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HONOLULU — One year after fast-moving wildfires destroyed the town of Lahaina, Maui, there are visible signs of progress to rebuild, writes Axios' Sara Kehaulani Goo, who is part Native Hawaiian and whose family is from Maui.

• Lots have been mostly cleared of debris. The water and wastewater systems have been rebuilt. Permits for residents to start rebuilding have been approved. Even its iconic, 151-year-old Banyan tree seems to have survived.

Why it matters: But the wildfires that killed more than 100 people on Aug. 8, 2023, exacerbated a housing crisis and have forced local residents and leaders to confront bigger questions about how to rebuild on Maui.

🔎 Zoom in: Many who lost their homes still struggle with housing and money.

• More than a quarter of an estimated 5,400 displaced families who lost their homes in the fire have left Maui, mostly due to a shortage of affordable housing and jobs.
• A recent survey of fire survivors found that 6 in 10 had moved more than three times since losing their homes.

Reality check: Maui has enough housing to meet local demand. The problem is that much of it is being used for high-paying visitors.

• The county is considering a proposal to convert half of the island's existing short-term housing rentals into long-term use to ease the housing crunch.

Keep reading.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are statistically tied in a CBS News/YouGov survey of registered voters out this morning.

• Why it matters: In the two weeks since President Biden dropped out, Harris has closed the gap with Trump. Biden was trailing Trump by five points when he left the race two weeks ago today, CBS News notes.

The poll of 3,102 registered voters nationwide, interviewed between Tuesday and Friday, has a margin of error of ±2.1 points.

Enthusiasm among women and Black voters is boosting Harris' numbers.

• When Biden was the nominee, 58% of registered Black voters said they'll definitely vote. Now that share has jumped to 74%.

70% of women voters said Harris' policies would help women. 43% said the same for Trump.

💰 Trump still leads on economic issues: 45% said they'll be financially better off if he wins. 25% said the same for Harris.

Jimmy Carter's 100th birthday is coming on Oct. 1. He's got one wish:

• "I'm only trying to make it to vote for Kamala Harris," he told his son Chip, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports from an interview with Jason Carter, the former president's grandson.

Jason said his grandfather has been "more alert and interested in politics and the war in Gaza" in recent days.

This summer's buzziest pop singers — including Charli XCX, Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter — have ascended at a time when it's much harder for newcomers to break through on the Billboard Hot 100 than on TikTok.

• Why it matters: Pop's new guard is breaking down the traditional album-to-arena tour career track, Axios' Natalie Daher writes.

🎤 It's not exclusively about Billboard chart-toppers and radio plays anymore. The new metrics of success include the dedication of your fanbase and your virality.

• Roan's "Good Luck, Babe!" was streamed more than all but one song on Beyonce's "Cowboy Carter," according to music data analytics company ChartMetric.
• Carpenter, a 25-year-old former Disney star, owned the algorithm and cultural discourse this summer with the highly memeable "Espresso" and "Please Please Please."
• Kamala Harris' campaign re-branded her X account a la "Brat" shortly after Charli's affirmative tweet.

The bottom line: "I think pop was getting boring for a while; we were getting a little bit oversaturated with Taylor Swift," said Nicki Camberg, a data journalist at ChartMetric. "I think people were just ready for something new."

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American throwers finished first and second in the men's shot put final for the third Olympic Games in a row last night, Axios' Ina Fried writes from Paris.

• Ryan Crouser won gold, and Joe Kovacs took silver.

Katie Ledecky won her ninth gold medal in the women's 800m final yesterday, making her the most decorated female Olympian in U.S. history.