The next Republican president could effectively ban most abortions through a simple policy change at the Justice Department, experts and advocates on both sides of the abortion debate tell Axios' Caitlin Owens.

• Why it matters: Republicans disagree about whether to pursue a national abortion ban, which would face long odds in Congress. But a GOP president may be able to unilaterally curb access to medication abortion across the country using an obscure 19th-century law.

At issue is the meaning of the 1873 Comstock Act, which banned the mailing of "obscene" material like pornography, as well as abortion drugs and contraception. While the law has been cut down over the years, the abortion provision remained — but was ignored while Roe v. Wade was in place.

• Medication abortion — which usually involves the use of two drugs, mifepristone and misoprostol, in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy — accounts for more than half of abortions in the U.S.

The Heritage Foundation, which has proposed detailed policies for a potential GOP administration, argues that Comstock "unambiguously prohibits mailing abortion drugs" and says the next administration should "enforce federal law against providers and distributors of [abortion] pills."

• The Biden administration disagrees with this interpretation. A Justice Department memo issued last year contends that the law doesn't prohibit mailing abortion drugs when the sender expects them to be used lawfully.
• A new president could easily change that interpretation, experts say: The administration could not just restrict patients from receiving pills at home, but also stop pharmacies and health care providers from getting shipments.

"If Trump were elected," said Lawrence Gostin, a Georgetown Law professor who supports abortion rights, "not only would I not be surprised, but I would expect the administration to direct DOJ to overturn its guidance on the Comstock Act, and rule that shipping mifepristone through the U.S. Postal Service is a violation of that statute."

• The Trump campaign didn't respond to a request for comment on its thinking about the Comstock Act.

The other side: Abortion rights advocates argue that interpreting Comstock so literally is ignoring its context and legal precedent.

• They would almost certainly sue to block a DOJ policy change.
• "It's tailor-made for a Supreme Court that considers itself textualist," said Mary Ziegler, a UC Davis law professor and legal historian.

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President Biden's re-election team has spent more than $50 million on TV and digital ads in swing states this year — and next to nothing on local organizers to begin reaching voters in person, Axios' Alex Thompson and Erin Doherty report.

• Why it matters: The ad-heavy strategy breaks from President Obama's 2012 re-election. Obama invested millions in an army of organizers in swing states to contact voters up to 18 months before the election.

What's happening: Biden's team is focused on the idea that Americans are online and on their phones more than ever — and that meeting people there is just as important as meeting them on their doorstep.

• The campaign believes that a ground game can be established next year and be as effective as Obama's.
• Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster said: "[W]e are building a campaign to win next November — not past elections."

🧮 By the numbers: By about this time during the 2012 election cycle, Obama had nearly nine times as many people on his campaign's payroll as the 38 workers Biden reported in the third quarter of this year.

• Biden's team had spent $39 million on TV as of Nov. 2, according to AdImpact, and more than $10 million on Facebook and Google ads, per Bully Pulpit Interactive.

Between the lines: Obama campaign veterans say organizing local teams was a key part of Obama's political identity in a way that it isn't for Biden. Some are skeptical that Biden could mobilize a similarly large crew of low-paid field organizers.

• Biden's strategy is being overseen by White House deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon, who also oversaw Obama's field program in 2012 as a deputy campaign manager.

🖼️ The big picture: Biden's strategy reflects a larger debate among political consultants about whether sprawling field programs are worth the cost.

• Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary with much smaller grassroots operations than Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

🕶️ What to watch: To reach voters digitally, Biden is launching pilot initiatives for content distribution and "micro-influencer programs" in Arizona and Wisconsin.

• The campaign says it's hiring two dozen staffers for the programs, focusing on Black and young voters in Wisconsin, and Latino and women voters in Arizona.

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This chart shows the rising frequency of inflation-adjusted billion-dollar disasters in the U.S.:

• There was an average of one every four months in the 1980s.
• There's an average of one every three weeks now, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Crucial context: This results from climate change + population growth, Axios extreme-weather expert Andrew Freedman notes.

• Explore the data ... Get Axios Generate, our daily energy/climate newsletter.

Tens of thousands marched on the National Mall to support Israel's military campaign against Hamas with the cry of: "Never again!"

• About 240 hostages were taken captive. Nine Americans remain missing.
• The march was organized by the Jewish Federations of North America and the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, Axios Jacob Knutson reports.

The top Democrats in Congress — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries — came together onstage with Republicans Mike Johnson, the House speaker, and Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, AP reports.

• They joined hands as Schumer chanted: "We stand with Israel."

Reality check: Beneath that projection of unity, Democrats are deeply divided over Israel's treatment of Palestinians.

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Backdrop for President Biden's meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the San Francisco area today (2 p.m. ET): Businesses worldwide are adapting their supply chains as the two superpowers shrink their dependence on each other, the N.Y. Times' Peter Goodman writes.

• Why it matters: The two have been "conjoined in an enterprise so consequential that the economic historian Niall Ferguson coined a term: Chimerica, shorthand for their 'symbiotic economic relationship.'"

"No one uses words like symbiotic today," Goodman continues. "Chimerica has yielded to a trade war."

• "American companies are shifting factory production away from China to less politically risky venues. Chinese businesses are focused on trade with allies and neighbors."

The bottom line: "Decades of American rhetoric that celebrated commerce as a wellspring of democratization in China," The Times adds, "have given way to resignation that the country's current leadership ... is intent on crushing dissent at home and projecting military might abroad."

• Go deeper: What to expect from the Biden-Xi meeting, by Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

October's Consumer Price Index showed further progress on inflation after a brutal year (ab0ve), Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write.

• "The inflation fever has broken in the United States," Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note.

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Late-night comics pounced on Capitol Hill's pugilistic day, after Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) challenged Teamsters president Sean O'Brien to settle longstanding differences right there: "Well, stand your butt up, then!"

• The bespectacled O'Brien replied: "You stand your butt up!"
• Mullin, a former MMA fighter, did just that (above).

On ABC, Jimmy Kimmel joked that the hearing became "like UFC-SPAN all of a sudden."

• Kimmel video ... Fight video ... Go deeper: Congressional pressure cooker explodes as personal feuds turn physical.

The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is falling after years of rising prices and a record high last year.

• The American Farm Bureau Federation's 38th annual Thanksgiving survey, out this morning, shows that lower turkey prices are making the holiday meal more affordable, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.

Why it matters: The findings are another sign that inflation is cooling.

🦃 By the numbers: The average meal with turkey and trimmings will cost 4.5% less than last year's record.

• The survey found the average cost of this year's holiday meal for 10 people was $61.17, down from $64.05 in 2022 — but still 25% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.

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