Axios AM

January 10, 2023
🌞 Happy Tuesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,494 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner.
1 big thing: Biden's '24 backlash
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
President Biden's proposed 2024 primary calendar is running into a buzzsaw of opposition from two politically critical states — creating a standstill in locking down Democrats' political calendar, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes.
- Why it matters: With the GOP in power in Georgia and New Hampshire, it's hard to expect Biden's changes will go through — even as Dems in those states have been given an extension to work things out.
The law of unintended consequences could hurt Biden:
- If Georgia's GOP leaders don't move their primary — and New Hampshire sticks with its first-in-the-nation primary (as required by state law) — the episode would reveal limits to Biden's influence.
- The White House's heavy-handed approach could end up sparking a rebellion in states that got marginalized.
The DNC's rulemaking committee gave the two states an extended deadline to see what they can do to accommodate the desired rule changes.
- Under the DNC proposal, New Hampshire would hold its presidential primary several days after South Carolina, which would become the new first-in-the-nation contest.
💭 Our thought bubble: If the DNC punishes New Hampshire for holding an unauthorized primary, a protest candidate could emerge merely to decry Biden's role in marginalizing the state's influence — at a time when he could be coasting to re-nomination.
- New Hampshire's value on the primary calendar was never about a large number of delegates, but its longstanding role of seriously vetting candidates in the presidential process.
Most Democratic strategists we've talked to predict the DNC will eventually drop Georgia as an early-state primary because of impossible logistical challenges.
- But because many Democratic leaders have publicly called out New Hampshire for its racial homogeneity, the battle over the Granite State's future role in presidential politics is poised to get uglier.
2. Ozone layer healing

Earth's ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, AP writes from a new UN report.
- "In the upper stratosphere and in the ozone hole, we see things getting better," said Paul Newman, co-chair of the once-every-four-years scientific assessment.
- Signs of healing were reported four years ago but were slight. "Those numbers of recovery have solidified a lot," Newman said.
The progress is slow, according to the report, presented yesterday at the American Meteorological Society convention in Denver.
- The global average amount of ozone — 18 miles up in the atmosphere — won't be back to 1980 pre-thinning levels until about 2040.
- It won't be back to normal in Antarctica until 2066.
🧠 What's happening: Decades ago, people could walk into a store and buy a can of refrigerants that eat away at the ozone. Now, refrigerants are banned.
- "There has been a sea change in the way our society deals with ozone depleting substances," said scientific panel co-chair David W. Fahey, director of NOAA's chemical sciences lab.
🧮 By the numbers: The two chief chemicals that munch away at ozone are in lower levels in the atmosphere.
- Chlorine levels are down 11.5% since they peaked in 1993. Bromine dropped 14.5% since its 1999 peak.
3. 📜 Biden's classified docs

The White House said "a small number of documents with classified markings" from President Biden's time as V.P. were discovered in private office space in D.C. and turned over to the National Archives in November.
- The documents were found while Biden's personal attorneys were packing files housed in a locked closet at the Penn Biden Center, which Biden periodically used from mid-2017 until the start of his 2020 campaign, Axios' Shawna Chen and Sophia Cai write.
"On the day of this discovery, November 2, 2022, the White House Counsel's Office notified the National Archives. The Archives took possession of the materials the following morning," says a statement from special counsel Richard Sauber.
- "The documents were not the subject of any previous request or inquiry by the Archives."
The Justice Department is reviewing the documents.
- "[T]he President's personal attorneys have cooperated with the Archives and the Department of Justice ... to ensure that any Obama-Biden Administration records are appropriately in the possession of the Archives," the statement says.
4. ⚠️ 90% of California under flood watch

The most powerful wave in the "relentless parade" of severe storm systems pummelling California has put about 90% of the state's population — more than 34 million people — under flood watches, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes.
- This latest storm, part of a series of "atmospheric rivers," has triggered evacuations and the closure of schools and roads across California.
The National Weather Service is warning of "torrential rain, widespread flooding, rapid water rises, mudslides and landslides ... and gusty high winds."
- The death toll from the storms rose to 14.
What we're watching: The flood threat today centers on Southern California. 16 inches of rain fell in the hills of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties through overnight — with more on the way.
5. 🤖 Chatbot writes malware
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Malicious hackers are already using the new AI chatbot, ChatGPT, to create low-level cyber tools, writes Sam Sabin, author of Axios Codebook, our cybersecurity newsletter.
- Why it matters: Security experts have been warning OpenAI's ChatGPT tool could help cybercriminals. It all happened fast.
Researchers at Check Point Research said Friday they've spotted malicious hackers using ChatGPT to write malware, create data encryption tools and write code.
- Sign up here for Axios Codebook.
6. 📚 New book: America needs more people
Cover: The Aspen Institute
The U.S. needs more people — whether through Americans having more babies or more immigration, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes from a new book by the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
- Failure to achieve that is among the biggest economic risks for the years and decades ahead, the group — led by former Treasury secretaries Tim Geithner and Hank Paulson — concluded.
🧮 By the numbers: The U.S. "total fertility rate," the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, was 2.12 in 2007.
- It was down to 1.65 in 2021, the lowest ever recorded in the United States, economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine write.
"Low or falling fertility will eventually reduce the size of the US workforce and its overall population, reducing innovation and productivity," Kearney and Levine write.
- They warn the trend potentially endangers the finances of Social Security and Medicare.
Between the lines: Compared to the years following the global financial crisis, "the US economy is confronting a wholly different set of economic headwinds," Paulson tells Axios — including around demographics, debt and decoupling with China.
- Keep reading in Axios Macro, out at noon.
Disclosure: Neil is a member of the Aspen group. He attends in his capacity as a journalist and was not involved in preparing the book.
7. 👑 Harry's memoir in 3 sentences

I read every story about Prince Harry's 416-page memoir, "Spare" — out today from Random House — so you don't have to. These three bits capture where the 38-year-old Californian is at:
- The Duke of Sussex remembers William ("my beloved brother, my arch nemesis") and his father saying they honestly didn't know why Harry left: "If they didn't know why I'd left, maybe they just didn't know me. At all. And maybe they never really did."
- Harry fell in love with rugby "for external pain that matched what I felt inside ... a good excuse to attack whatever comes my way ... Rugby allowed me to vent my anger. ... I didn't feel pain in the same way as the other guys, which made me a danger on the pitch ... I stopped fearing death when I was 12 years old."
- Harry, the eternal outsider, compares himself to King Henry IV, who was "exiled and then returned to annihilate every obstacle and person that stood before him ... My distant relative. My soulmate, some would say."
The bottom line: Harry on the reaction of his dad, now King Charles III, to the death of Harry's mum, Princess Diana: "Pa didn't hug me."
8. 🐶 Dawgs have their back-to-back day

Georgia destroyed TCU, 65-7, last night to become the first back-to-back national champions of the College Football Playoff era — and just the eighth in the history of the sport, Axios Sports editor Kendall Baker writes.
- The big picture: The Bulldogs (15-0) have solidified themselves as an all-time college football dynasty, winning 29 of 30 games and two national titles over the past 16 months, while outscoring opponents 1,163-364.
Wild stat: Georgia's 58-point win is not only the biggest blowout in national championship game history — it's the largest margin of victory in any bowl game ever.

The intrigue: Georgia is the first back-to-back champ since Alabama in 2011 and 2012, when Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator.
- A decade later, the apprentice has become the master.
What they're saying: "They've taken over college football," ESPN analyst (and former Bulldog) David Pollack said of Georgia during halftime — with Saban sitting feet away.
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