Yes, D.C. may be facing a government shutdown (again)
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The Groundhog Day vibes are strong: D.C. may be facing another government shutdown if House Republicans' predictions come true, per an Axios scoop.
Why it matters: The DMV has the country's largest number of federal workers, and a shutdown means the 300,000-plus could face furloughs or work without pay, impacting daily life on a local and national level.
- It's some seriously frustrating déjà vu for D.C. feds after several recent threats of government shutdowns, the latest just last month.
What's happening: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will have to choose in coming weeks between a fight with Democrats that threatens a shutdown, or a deal with Democrats that threatens his job.
- "People are predicting a shutdown even if it's just for a few days," a GOP lawmaker recently told Axios.
- They're either "close to reaching a deal or it's about to blow up," one subcommittee chair recently told a fellow House Republican.
The intrigue: The government will start a partial shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1.
- It will go into a full shutdown if there isn't a budget or stopgap by March 8.
- "We think we're going to meet the deadlines," Johnson told reporters last week.
The key date is April 30. If there's no new budget by then, it will trigger a 1% across-the-board spending cut. Democrats won't back a stopgap bill beyond this.
- Across-the-board cuts are A-OK for some House conservatives.
- They're frustrated by the lack of policy riders on abortion, gender-affirming care, and medical research in the current negotiations.
Zoom in: While millions of federal employees would be affected on a national level, D.C.'s large number of federal workers, military members, and government contractors means the region would especially feel a shutdown.
- 2018's 35-day shutdown saw workers miss mortgages, rack up credit card debt, and visit food banks — and cost D.C. $47 million overall.
Between the lines: House Republicans have stopped laughing off the idea that Johnson could face the same treatment as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
- Johnson's simple but risky option to avoid a shutdown would be to use Democratic votes to pass a deal with a two-thirds majority.
- But McCarthy's ouster in October was sparked by him working with Democrats on a spending stopgap.
- "It's going to be difficult to do what we need to do and not have someone do" a motion to vacate, a member who isn't supportive of removing Johnson told Axios.