Kendall Qualls wins Minnesota Republican Party Straw Poll
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Kendall Qualls, Lisa Demuth and Mike Lindell finished in the top three. Photos: Jerry Holt/Minnesota Star Tribune; Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call; Kayla Bartkowski via Getty Images.
Two-time gubernatorial candidate Kendall Qualls narrowly won Saturday's Minnesota Republican Party Straw Poll.
Why it matters: The results, along with campaign fundraising reports due in January, can signal which candidates have early momentum in a crowded field.
State of play: Qualls, a nonprofit leader who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022 and Congress in 2020, topped the poll of delegates at the party's winter meeting with 93 votes.
- House Speaker Lisa Demuth was right behind him with 90 votes, and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, the newest entrant in the race, came in third with 49.
- Attorney Chris Madel and Phillip Parrish rounded out the top five.
The big picture: Republicans are hoping that voter fatigue and Gov. Tim Walz's vulnerabilities on fraud and other issues will help them end a two-decade statewide losing streak next year.
- Yes, but: Some are concerned that a messy and prolonged primary among so many candidates could complicate their chances — especially if it results in a more conservative candidate who is seen as less viable in the general election winning the nomination.
Reality check: The candidate who comes in first in the December straw poll doesn't always secure the party endorsement or nomination, which is still months away.
- The 2022 winner, then-Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazekla, ended his bid after losing a heated endorsement vote five months later.
The other side: Democrats argue that a midterm election that's a referendum on President Trump — and his administration's policies on issues like health care subsidies and tariffs — will work in Walz's favor.
- They see recent results in places like New Jersey, Virginia and Tennessee as signs that Trump's low approval ratings will boost them at the polls.
Yes, but: Renewed national scrutiny of fraud in state programs — and the governor's response in recent media interviews — has fueled even more nerves and hand-wringing among Democratic insiders.
- Case in point: 69% of voters surveyed in a KSTP/Survey USA poll released over the weekend said the governor hasn't done enough to stop fraud.
What we're hearing: "Walz feels like the best shot at winning and also the biggest liability all at once," one DFL operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Axios.
Worth noting: Walz, who announced a new director of program integrity and other fraud prevention moves on Friday, has downplayed reports of nerves among DFLers.
- His head start raising cash and national profile should also translate to a fundraising advantage early next year.
What we're watching: Hamline University political science professor David Schultz told Axios that Walz's vulnerabilities and the lack of a competitive DFL primary risks "creating a Biden problem" for Democrats.
- If more polls show eroding support, it could lead to a scenario where "the pressure on him is so bad he's going to either have to leave or the Democrats are completely saddled with a candidate who can't win," Schultz argued.
What's next: The GOP endorsement process picks up early next year, with caucuses scheduled for early February.