Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth launches GOP governor bid

State of play: Republicans haven't won a statewide election in Minnesota since 2006, and most election forecasting sites currently predict the streak will continue in next year's midterm election.

• But Walz's critics say his approval ratings, mounting fraud cases and voter fatigue after eight years in office create an opening for a more competitive race.

Bio in brief: Demuth, a four-term legislator and former school board member from Cold Spring who ascended to House GOP leader in 2022, was elected speaker this year as part of the power-sharing agreement in the evenly split House.

• That put her at the negotiating table with Walz during this year's high-stakes budget talks.

What she's saying: Demuth told Axios in an interview ahead of her announcement that preventing future fraud, boosting educational outcomes, and reducing what she described as wasteful government spending will be some of her top priorities.

• "I want Minnesota to be a stronger and better place than where we are right now," she said. "As I've watched our state and what's happened to it over the last number of years, I decided it was time to step up."

Zoom in: Demuth plans to keep the speaker's gavel next year, as DFL Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher did when she ran for governor in 2010.

• That puts her in the thorny position of both keeping united a caucus that includes primary rival Kristin Robbins and negotiating deals with a governor she's trying to challenge.

Plus: Fallout from bipartisan deals at the divided Capitol could continue to generate resistance from conservative factions in and outside of her caucus as she seeks to win over GOP voters ahead of the endorsement and primary.

• One such group, Action 4 Liberty, recently named Demuth a "RINO" — "Republican in Name Only" — of the year.

What we're hearing: Amy Koch, a former Senate majority leader, said juggling the speakership and a statewide campaign is "incredibly hard," especially if there are intra-caucus divides related to the governor's race.

• But delegating well can make it doable, Koch said, especially given that legislators have a lighter to-do list in a non-budget session.

Between the lines: Demuth, the first Black woman to serve as speaker, would make history as both the first woman and the first person of color to serve as Minnesota governor.

• "The fact that I'm a Black woman running for this office, it can be looked at as historic, and that's OK," Demuth said. "But I'm looking forward to the time when it doesn't just make history, where it's become normal because people are qualified to do the job."

What we're watching: The Trump effect, both on the primary and general.

• Demuth brushed off the prospect that polls showing voter dissatisfaction with Trump and his policies could dim Republicans' chances next year.
• She said that while she'll seek Trump's endorsement, she plans to keep her campaign focused on state issues.

Bonus: Who's running in the GOP primary so far

Demuth joins a crowded GOP primary field that's already attracted several well-known candidates.

Driving the competition: Rivals have already been criss-crossing the state, courting delegates, raising cash and dinging Walz for months. They include:

🩺 Scott Jensen, a doctor and former senator who who won the GOP endorsement and nomination to challenge Walz in 2022.

• Jensen, whose views on vaccines and other health issues could attract supporters of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s "MAHA" movement, has argued that the party platform needs modernization.

🔎 Rep. Kristin Robbins, a suburban legislator who chairs a high-profile House committee on fraud.

• Robbins, whose finance committee includes some deep-pocketed Minnesota donors, got off to a strong fundraising start, raising $500,000 in her first two weeks.

🗳️ Kendall Qualls, a businessman and nonprofit founder who ran for governor in 2022 and Congress in 2020.

The intrigue: Demuth said her "intent" at this time is to abide by the GOP endorsement — meaning she'd drop out if she doesn't secure delegates' backing next spring.

• While her phrasing leaves room to pivot, it represents a break from rivals who have said they would compete in an August primary either way.

Between the lines: Some Minnesota Republicans, including Jensen, have criticized the endorsement process for motivating candidates to move to the right and take on positions that can make it harder to win over crucial swing voters in November.

• Demuth downplayed those concerns, saying she plans to present voters with a "consistent" record and agenda in the primary and general.

The other side: Walz, who entered the race with a big fundraising advantage and high name ID thanks to his existing campaign infrastructure and national fundraising network, isn't expected to face a serious primary challenge.

• Minnesota DFL Chair Richard Carlbom criticized Demuth as the "corporate candidate" in a statement, saying she'll "protect hedge funds over health care."

What we're watching: Whether any other Republicans jump into what could be a prolonged — and expensive — endorsement and primary battle.