Abortion rulings boost Florida Dems' hopes
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The Florida Supreme Court's seismic rulings on abortion unleashed a frenzy of campaigning among Democrats eager to turn the Sunshine State back into the nation's most important battleground.
Why it matters: Abortion rights have won in every state they've appeared on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, over-performing President Biden and juicing Democratic turnout.
State of play: Within 24 hours of the rulings, the Biden campaign and other top Democrats were rapidly mobilizing — and fundraising — to ensure voters understood the stakes of November's vote.
- Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris</a> both issued searing statements blaming Republicans — including former President Trump — for Florida's new abortion restrictions.
- Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez-Rodriguez released a memo declaring that Florida — which Trump carried by 370,000 votes in 2020 — was now a "winnable" state.
The intrigue: The Biden campaign also released a new ad yesterday featuring Trump's boasts about getting Roe v. Wade "terminated" — but the spot will not run in Florida.
- That could be a sign that while the campaign wants the state to be competitive in November, it's not yet prepared to invest serious cash.
Between the lines: Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst, tells Axios that operatives are excited for the "on-the-ground" infrastructure the ballot effort will generate — and its potential to bring "a lot of money" into the state.
Reality check: Republicans in Florida have a staggering lead in active voter registration and a robust political infrastructure, with Gov. Ron DeSantis winning re-election by nearly 20 points in 2022.
- Florida voters also have a history of embracing progressive ballot measures, such as restoring felons' voting rights and raising the state's minimum wage, while still voting for Republican candidates.