Some New Yorkers dream of Tampa Bay homes
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Most pre-pandemic moves were motivated by job changes; now, housing affordability is driving cross-state relocations, experts say.
Driving the news: Florida experienced one of the biggest population booms in the country between 2020 and 2022, the latest census data show.
Why it matters: More millennials are flocking to Tampa alongside snowbirds and retirees, says Elliot Eisenberg, an economist with Greater Tampa Realtors.
Among reasons they're coming: Warm weather, a relaxing environment, winning sports — and before Tom Brady moved away, proximity to his Tampa mansion didn't hurt, Eisenberg says of things he’s heard from incoming millennials.
Zoom in: Of the top 10 metros where Zillow searches originate, six come from outside of Florida, according to first-quarter Zillow data shared with Axios.
- More than half of the page views for Tampa-area Zillow listings are from locals, the data show.
- Outside of Florida, New York was the top origin, followed by Chicago, Atlanta, Philly, D.C. and L.A.
- Of note: Compared to the same time last year, there hasn't been a huge shift in search traffic patterns. However, Dallas dropped from the top 10 list, with L.A. taking its place in 2023.
What they're saying: The massive migration we've seen over the last few years is over, as work-from-home is past its peak, Eisenberg says.
- But people will always move to Tampa for cheaper housing, warm weather, beaches and low taxes.
The big picture: Since 2021, there's been an exodus from high-cost tech hubs along the West Coast — including the Bay area and Seattle — for more affordable mountain region states and Texas, says Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr.
- On the East Coast, people left New York and headed south to Philly, the Carolinas and Florida, he adds.
Yes, but: "We're seeing a big pullback in migration right now," Marr tells Axios.
- It's simply too expensive for most people to buy right now. Across the U.S., the number of Redfin users searching for homes within their metro is down 18% from a year ago, per a June report.
- Meanwhile, the number of users surfing listings in a new area dropped 7%.
Between the lines: If people are moving right now, it's in search of cheaper housing elsewhere, Marr says.
The intrigue: Domestic migration has scaled back, but we're seeing a resurgence of immigration, Marr says.
- And a lot of these folks are moving to cities that saw big local population losses.
What's next: Growing environmental concerns will start to influence migration patterns, though affordability will likely still be the No. 1 driver, Marr predicts.