Violent crime drops in SF as major U.S. cities see broad declines
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Violent crime dropped sharply across America's biggest cities — including San Francisco — in 2025, according to data reviewed by Axios.
Why it matters: The stats point toward a sustained San Francisco recovery, away from the doom-loop narrative that has dogged the city since the pandemic.
- The new numbers also counter the crime-related reasons President Trump cited for wanting to send federal troops to Democratic-run cities last year.
Zoom in: Homicides in San Francisco fell 20% from 2024 to 2025, per preliminary data analyzed by the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which examined statistics for 67 of the nation's biggest police departments.
- Rape dropped nearly 38%, while robberies decreased by about 25% and aggravated assault by almost 13%.
The big picture: The San Francisco Police Department announced in January that in 2025, homicides dropped to the lowest number (28) since 1954.
- Compared with 2024, last year also saw a 16% decrease in shootings, a 27% decline in property crime, and a 44% drop in car break-ins.
- City leaders attributed the changes to new technologies (such as drones and automated license plate readers), a surge in convictions secured by the district attorney's office, efforts to increase law enforcement staffing, and education campaigns reminding people not to leave belongings in their cars.
Yes, but: While property crime fell in 2025, SoMa and Mission bucked the trend, primarily due to larceny theft, according to police data analyzed by the San Francisco Chronicle.
By the numbers: The Major Cities Chiefs Association found declines across every major violent-crime category in 2025 compared with 2024 and confirmed other studies on last year's declines.
- Nationwide, homicides overall fell 19%.
- Robberies dropped about 20%.
- Aggravated assaults were down nearly 10%.
Between the lines: Experts aren't sure why violent crime continues to fall dramatically across so many cities.
- It "likely reflects several forces moving in the same direction, not one magic solution," Thaddeus L. Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), said in a January CCJ analysis.
- Having more eyes on the streets with the return to in-person work also plays a role, Johnson added.
The intrigue: In response to early reports that crime was dropping to record lows, the Trump administration has changed its tone and has begun touting the declines while crediting its policies.
- "After record high crime across the country under Biden's defund the police era, the murder rate has plunged to a 125-year low as crime falls across the board, according to new data," the White House said earlier this month.
- The White House pointed to the president's sending "federal resources into crime-plagued Washington, D.C.," as a reason for crime drops in the nation's capital.
Reality check: Violent crime rates in many cities have been falling significantly since former President Biden's last two years in office, following a COVID-era crime wave that began in 2020, the final year of Trump's first term.