Homicide rates plunging in Trump's "hellhole" cities
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Homicide rates continued to decline in major U.S. cities — by more than 40% in some communities — during the first nine months of the year, according to new data reviewed by Axios.
Why it matters: President Trump has sent, or threatened to send, National Guard troops to what he calls "hellhole" cities to fight escalating crime. But the latest numbers show homicides in several of those cities — namely D.C., Memphis, Chicago and Portland, Ore. — are dropping dramatically.
By the numbers: Reports from 67 law enforcement agencies showed an overall decline in homicides of 19% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to stats compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA).
- An Axios analysis of the MCCA data found that Buffalo, N.Y., Denver, Orlando, Fla., and Seattle all had more than 40% declines in homicides during that period.
- Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago and Las Vegas were among the cities that had drops of 25% or more drop in homicide.
The intrigue: Portland, a city Trump frequently has criticized as a "like living in hell," reported a 39% decrease in homicides, the Axios review found.
- Memphis, where the National Guard was deployed in mid-September, reported a 19% drop in homicides over the first three-quarters of the year.
State of play: The stats are the latest signs that violent crime in America is starkly different from what Trump cites as his reason for sending federal troops to Chicago, Portland, D.C., Memphis and cities in California.
- "Chicago is a hellhole right now. Baltimore is a hellhole right now," Trump said in September. "We have the right to [call in the National Guard] because I have an obligation to protect this country."
Reality check: Chicago led the nation with a 22.1% drop in overall violent crime during the first nine months of 2025, according to the Axios review.
- The city of 2.6 million reported the most homicides in the nation last year — 573 — but its homicide rate wasn't in the top 20 among U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents, an Axios review of FBI data found.
- Baltimore had the country's fifth-largest decrease (19.7%) in violent crime during the first nine months of this year.
What they're saying: "President Trump cares deeply about the safety and security of the American people — no amount of violent crime is justifiable," White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement.
- "Chicago has had the most murders of any U.S. city for 13 consecutive years — which has destroyed the lives of many law-abiding Americans."
The big picture: Violent crime rates in many cities have been falling significantly since President Biden's last two years in office, following a COVID-era crime wave that began in 2020, the final year of Trump's first term.
Yes, but: Atlanta stands out as one of the few large U.S. cities that had a double-digit rise (19.4%) in violent crime during the first nine months of 2025, driven by upticks in robberies and assaults.
- A few mid-sized metros, including Columbus, Ohio, also bucked the trend with upticks in violent crime.
Zoom out: New York and Los Angeles, the nation's two largest cities, saw decreases in homicides, 17% and 23% respectively, and declines in nearly every other category of violent crime.
Go deeper: Rural South, West states have highest violent crime rates: FBI
