The stories shaping San Francisco in 2026
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Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
2026 has barely started and the news cycle is already in full swing, setting the stage for key storylines that will leave an imprint on San Francisco at the local, state and federal levels.
Why it matters: Some could shape policy, set precedents or have outsized impacts on the city. Here's what we're watching.
👉 Lurie's next move
Mayor Daniel Lurie finished his first year in office to mostly middling reviews. Year 2 means new challenges: enacting his family zoning plan, balancing a still-ballooning budget deficit and convincing voters to approve a transit funding measure.
- The intrigue: He also appears to be taking a more aggressive — and perhaps controversial — approach to San Francisco's behavioral health crisis.
- Within the first two weeks of 2026, Lurie announced plans to open a center that would provide an alternative to jail or hospitalization for people arrested under the influence of drugs, as well as legislation allowing courts to authorize involuntary medication for people with serious mental illness.
- We'll be tracking the outcomes of these policy actions.
🗓️ Trump, Year 2
President Trump's second-term priorities had widespread effects in the Bay Area, including shifts in immigration enforcement, federal funding uncertainty and renewed clashes with local and state leaders over climate, housing and public safety.
- We expect that to continue — especially ahead of November's midterm elections.
🗳️ Elections, elections, elections
A major electoral shakeup is set to take over San Francisco this fall. We've got three candidates vying for Rep. Nancy Pelosi's seat, a crowded race for California governor and five supervisors' offices (Districts 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10) up for grabs.
- That's before we even count the expected ballot measures — a one-time 5% tax on California's billionaires, a union-backed measure to raise the city's overpaid executive tax and more to come (see below).
🛣️ Public space showdowns
To open or not to open — that is the question. The saga over the Great Highway continues. With newly appointed Supervisor Alan Wong's support for reopening to cars on weekdays, we'll likely see another ballot measure on Sunset Dunes this November.
Another one to watch: The city's Arts Commission last year approved the removal of Vaillancourt Fountain, a 54-year-old Brutalist artwork, as part of a $32.5 million Embarcadero Plaza redesign.
- Preservationists have appealed to the Board of Supervisors, which will decide today whether dismantling can proceed. Something tells us the fight won't end there.
🏬 San Francisco Centre's future
While some parts of the city are thriving again with increased foot traffic and return-to-office mandates, San Francisco's biggest mall is still losing ground — and fast.
- The 1.2 million-square-foot property foreclosed in November after the previous owners defaulted on a $600 million loan.
- It got even messier when the lender now controlling the mall took three of its last remaining businesses to court as part of an eviction push. It's yet to be seen if that will set up the mall for a revival or result in a potentially expensive redevelopment project.
🏈 Mega sports moment
The Super Bowl and World Cup are expected to draw thousands of attendees and generate billions in economic gains for the region.
- The San Francisco 49ers might even have a shot at playing in the Super Bowl on home field (fingers crossed!).
🤖 AI's continued impact
AI isn't going anywhere, and conversations about its potential will continue to run parallel to debates over the need to regulate it.
- With multiple Bay Area tech giants spearheading new tools, a "new AI aristocracy is upon us," in the words of Axios co-founders Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen.