Off-cycle elections send Republicans a clear midterms warning
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Voters swung left in every major election this year since President Trump's return to power in January.
Why it matters: The off-cycle election results — combined with low approval ratings on Trump's handling of the economy — are red flags for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
- For Democrats, the leftward current provides a much-needed confidence boost.
The big picture: In key Congressional and state-level races this year, voters moved sharply to the left compared to last year's presidential election. In some races, the pendulum swung by double digits.
- Most recently, Miami elected its first Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years, beating a Trump-endorsed Republican.
Zoom in: Earlier this month, Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated a progressive Democrat to represent a conservative Nashville-area district by nine points.
- That's a far narrower victory than Trump's 22-point win in the district last year.
- The narrower margin of victory also paralleled closer-than-expected results in Florida's special House elections earlier this year.
State of play: Last month, Democrats bagged big wins in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California.
- Democratic victories were anticipated. But the size of the trouncing — including double-digit wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races — turned heads.
What we're watching: Trump argues that the reason for the lackluster showing is that his name wasn't on the ballot.
- Voters won't see his name on the ballots during the midterms, but he has announced plans to travel more in the lead-up to the election.
- Democrats will also frame the election as a referendum on him.
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