Florida election exposes deep divisions within GOP

• It's also unfolding as Democrats looking to the 2026 midterms were heartened by Tuesday's closer-than-expected results in Florida — and by a Democrat-backed state Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin who overcame Elon Musk's massive spending for her opponent.

Zoom out: The Trump political operation's anger focuses on the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) super PAC, the organizations in charge of defending the party's thin House majority.

• Trump lieutenants say they repeatedly warned the groups to pay attention to the race for the north-central Florida House seat vacated by now-National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
• Waltz's old district is heavily Republican, but Trump aides told Axios they saw reason for concern in the days before Tuesday's special election: Democrat Joshua Weil was raising loads of money and gaining steam against state Sen. Randy Fine.
• Trump advisers say their concerns were dismissed by the NRCC and CLF, which were confident Fine would win in a district President Trump won by 30 points in November.
• The groups limited their spending and the NRCC didn't air ads until the closing days of the race, when private polling by Trump strategist Tony Fabrizio showed Fine might lose. CLF didn't spend any money on TV ads for the race, but funded a poll that it says showed Fine up by 17 points.

Zoom in: In the weeks before Tuesday's election, Trump's team was increasingly alarmed about Fine's prospects, and whether the NRCC and CLF were doing enough to help him.

• Fine himself reached out to NRCC chair Richard Hudson (N.C.) on Feb. 22, according to a copy of their text message exchange reviewed by Axios. Fine said polling was showing some "disconcerting information," and that Democrats' enthusiasm was "through the roof."
• "They are spending huge amounts of money under the radar on their base, driving absentees and [independent voters]," Fine's message said. "... They spent 5 times as much on social ads last week alone as I spent total — more than $200,000."

Things came to a head in mid-March, when a Fabrizio poll showed Fine trailing Weil by 3 points — a steep decline from the previous month showing Fine up 12. By that point, said one Trump lieutenant, "[We were] screaming" that the NRCC and CLF were taking the seat for granted.

• In response to the Fabrizio survey, the NRCC sent $300,000 to bolster Fine.

• The concern in GOP circles was such that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal Trump adviser, sent Hudson and two other NRCC officials an email at 4 a.m. on March 21.
• "We have to do whatever is necessary ... or it will be an enormous psychological blow to the entire Trump agenda," Gingrich wrote in the email, which was obtained by Axios.
• Fine ended up winning, but by 14 points — less than half of Trump's margin in the district, and a potentially ominous sign about the 2026 midterms for Republicans.

What they're saying: "There is a general concern amongst many in Trump's political orbit about the inability of the NRCC and CLF to spot negative trends on their own," said one Trump lieutenant.

• "The lack of action and planning is concerning for the House majority. Something's gotta change."

The other side: NRCC and CLF officials say their decision to withhold funds was based on polling that showed Fine leading comfortably.

• An NRCC aide also said Fine had led them to believe he would be putting hundreds of thousands of dollars of his personal funds into the race — which he ultimately did in the last few days before the election.
• "The only division between CLF and the White House is the city block that separates our offices," said Torunn Sinclair, a CLF spokesperson.