Behind the Curtain: The Haves, Have-Nots, Have-Lots economy

The big picture: This shift, if it holds, will rattle economics, politics and AI throughout 2026 and beyond. We're already seeing it in rising inequality, pessimism about the future and AI opposition.

• It's human nature to judge your personal economics and mood on how you feel, influenced heavily by conscious and subconscious comparisons to others. So it's possible President Trump is right: U.S. growth and stocks soar in 2026. But even then, because the AI-connected hyperwealthy do so much better than everyone else, fear and resentment still grow.
• It's also possible the AI bubble pops, and everyone suffers. But the Have-Lots will (mostly) still have lots.

The Have-Nots: Stuck

For the bottom 50%+, the economy, by historical standards, is fine. Wages are growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is moderate. But the mood is sour, as shown by sky-high pessimism about their personal future and AI.

• This group leans Trump — not massively, but clearly, and enough to matter to MAGA's plans.
• Their income is up about 4% year-over-year before inflation, lower than the growth for their richer friends. But they're often burning through any increase to keep pace with inflation for food and energy.
• If they don't own a house, rents are high. And mortgage rates are around 6%, nearly twice what friends and neighbors got five years ago.
• The surging stock market does little for them. The bottom 50% of Americans own a measly 1% of all U.S. stocks. When Nvidia or Microsoft adds $1 trillion in market cap, it does nothing for the bank accounts of half the country.
• Roughly 40% of Americans couldn't cover a $400 emergency expense without debt.

So it's no wonder working-class or lower-income Americans are downbeat, and fear AI wiping away their jobs or making matters worse.

• The gap: During the AI bounce of the past two years, the top 10% of households saw their wealth increase by $5 trillion in a single quarter (Q2 2025), while the bottom 50% saw a gain of just $150 billion.

The Haves: Coasting (nervously)

We're talking about roughly a third of U.S. households with $100,000+ in investable assets. They're disproportionately likely to own stocks and retirement accounts. If they're homeowners, many are still enjoying low mortgage rates from 2020–21. By most historical measures, they're doing pretty well.

• Their wages rose 4.4% and they enjoyed strong market returns in 2025.
• About 54% of homeowners are sitting on mortgage rates at or below 4%. Those amount to golden handcuffs, keeping housing costs down for those who bought their home before 2022, even as today's 6%+ mortgage rates keep current renters out of the market.
• Bank of America data shows holiday spending grew much more strongly among higher-income households than lower-income ones.

But many are AI-nervous. They tend to hold white-collar jobs threatened by high-performing AI, and read daily about the tough job market for their college-age or soon-to-be college-age kids.

• The lower end of the affluent benefit from broad-based market gains, thanks to AI or AI-adjacent companies. But most aren't putting money directly into the AI startups fueling the hyper wealth growth of the Have-Lots.
• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, actually found improvement this month "among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes."

The Have-Lots: Rocketing

A new AI aristocracy is upon us. The tech moguls, mega-investors and others benefiting from AI are now in a category of their own that vastly overshadows the mere haves.

• This group is quickly accumulating vast wealth and power, in part by growing ever closer to the federal government in what we've called the Silicon Swamp.
• So the Have-Lots are becoming ever more invested in preserving Washington's status quo, and fending off new federal and state laws and regulations.

Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin, co-author of our Axios Macro economics newsletter, helped us crunch the numbers, and we found that the Have-Lots are an even more stunning story than we realized. It's hard to overstate what an amazing year 2025 was for the very richest Americans, particularly those with an inside track on AI, Trump or both:

• Among the 50 richest Americans, the median 2025 increase in net worth was nearly $10 billion, based on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That represents a 22% median gain in a year when the S&P 500 rose 16%, and Treasury bills returned less than 4%.
• Elon Musk's rise in wealth last year, $187 billion (to $600+ billion), is roughly the same as the entire net worths of Bill Gates and Charles Koch combined (about $117 billion for Gates and $69 billion for Koch).
• It was also a great year for the Google guys. Co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin saw their net worth rise by $101 billion and $92 billion, respectively (to $269 billion and $250 billion), while former CEO Eric Schmidt ended the year $17 billion richer (at $53 billion).
• Other notable names with massive wealth gains in 2025 include Larry Ellison, the Oracle chairman who's close to Trump and is backing Paramount's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (a $55 billion rise in net worth); Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ($40 billion); electronic-brokerage pioneer Thomas Peterffy ($24 billion); Jeff Yass, co-founder of the trading and investment giant Susquehanna ($17 billion); megadonor Miriam Adelson ($9 billion); and hedge-fund titan Ken Griffin ($7 billion).

The bottom line: The haves increasingly fear becoming Have-Nots, while the Have-Lots sock away even more.

• Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Trump bets party, presidency on AI."