Housing dominates San Diego mayoral race

Between the lines: Certain regulatory hurdles that curb homebuilding are more easily tackled in city halls and state legislatures than at the White House.

• "The most obvious way that states and localities can address housing needs is through zoning and land use policies," says Aniket Mehrotra of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center.

Yes, but: Government tinkering is not a quick fix for the challenges plaguing the housing market — elevated interest rates and steep construction costs are also slowing new construction.

Zoom in: More than half of San Diego voters cite housing costs as the city's biggest problem, which is double the next answer: the interrelated homelessness crisis.

• Mayor Todd Gloria's reelection campaign is touting his efforts to boost homebuilding, while his opponent, Larry Turner, argues increased development won't effect affordability.

What they're saying: "We have to grow the supply of housing to bring down rents and to make for-sale prices more affordable," Gloria said during a KPBS debate. "You've seen my administration work aggressively to build more housing to do precisely that. My opponent has said there is no housing crisis."

The other side: "What really does cause the affordability problem in San Diego, it is not the number of housing (units)," Turner said in the same debate. "We have a glut of housing... The problem is it's not affordable. To just continue to build more in the hopes that it's just gonna lower the prices, that's not happening."

• "The outside investors that come to San Diego are the ones raising prices and they donate money to our mayor and he allows them to then knock down homes in single family neighborhoods, and he allows them to build small apartment complexes there."

Reality check: San Diego has a shortage of roughly 90,000 homes in the last 30 years, as homebuilding has failed to keep pace with population growth.

• Yes, but: Of the 9,632 housing permits issued in 2023, 73% were in the "above moderate" price category, while the rest were reserved for residents with very low, low or moderate incomes.
• Research shows housing production at all price levels makes housing more affordable, including in low-income areas.

Flashback: Gloria won four years ago amid similar political dynamics, while he touted the need for increased homebuilding and his opponent — former Council Member Barbara Bry — rallied to neighborhood groups who opposed dense housing development.

The big picture: Mayoral hopefuls in cities from Richmond, Virginia, to San Francisco have pledged to blunt the high cost of housing by allowing denser construction, sometimes sparking local backlash.

In San Francisco, housing policy proposals are likely to decide the outcome of a crowded and contentious mayoral race that includes incumbent London Breed.

• Candidates have expressed differing opinions on whether environmental laws are restricting development, whether the city should ban new high-rise buildings in historic districts and whether rent caps should be expanded.

Zoom out: Even as housing prices have cooled in Austin, Texas, affordability remains a key issue in the city's mayoral race.

• Mayor Kirk Watson, who is seeking reelection, has pointed to his ambitious easing of home construction restrictions, as well as his attempt to streamline Austin's development services bureaucracy.

Two of his top opponents, Kathie Tovo and Carmen Llanes Pulido, have countered that those changes won't lead to more affordable housing.

Threat level: In places where cities and states have already allowed for denser housing in single-family neighborhoods, homeowners have, at times, resisted.

What we're watching: As experts estimate the U.S. needs millions more homes, city hall housing debates are not going away anytime soon.

• Some are already brewing in next year's mayoral races.

Axios' Asher Price, Shawna Chen, Zachery Eanes, Megan Stringer and Karri Peifer contributed reporting.