Why Harris and Trump can't stop talking about housing

Housing is typically the biggest cost in most people's budgets. Higher costs mean less money to spend on other things.

• That this issue is on both candidates' agendas reflects how urgent the long-simmering shortage has become.

The big picture: There's a core difference between Vice President Kamala Harris' detailed plans and former President Donald Trump's rhetoric.

• Harris frames the housing shortage mostly as a problem of supply. Her solution, broadly, is to build more homes.
• Trump frames this mostly as a demand problem. He and his running mate blame the housing shortage on immigrants.

State of play: Harris highlighted the housing shortage in her first debate answer last week. "We know that we have a shortage of homes and housing, and the cost of housing is too expensive for far too many people."

• Her housing plan, which includes tax breaks and incentives for home builders to build affordable homes to buy and rent, was part of her first economic proposal as a presidential candidate. She says it would lead to 3 million more homes; in line with a Moody's estimate of the shortfall.
• (It's worth noting she also wants to give first-time buyers a $25,000 tax credit, which would increase homebuying demand.)

Meanwhile: Trump doesn't have a detailed plan, but he's talking about the shortage. At a rally in Tucson last week he spoke in front of a sign that read, "Make housing affordable again."

• He talked about slashing mortgage rates and easing regulations to let builders build. Neither are things he would be able to control from the White House.
• He also wants to curb demand for housing by limiting undocumented immigrants' ability to buy or rent homes, as well as end the practice of providing shelter for migrants.

The background: The current housing shortage has its roots in the 2008 housing bust when a huge number of homebuilders went out of business. The industry never recovered.

• "It's a very severe shortage," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "I think it's as bad as in the wake of World War II when soldiers came home and we just didn't have enough homes."

By the numbers: At the peak of the last housing boom back in 2005, builders were constructing new homes at a rate of about 2.2 million per year. Now, the number is 1.2 million.

• Demand for housing spiked in the pandemic, as mortgage rates hit rock-bottom lows and many folks sought more space for remote work or moved due to health concerns.

Zoom in: In Tucson last week, Trump reiterated his pledge to ban mortgages for "illegal aliens."

Yes, but: Though non-U.S. citizens can get federally backed mortgages in the U.S., there's extensive documentation required and it's a vanishingly small segment of the market.

• And while theoretically, mass deportations would reduce the number of people who need homes, it would also reduce the number of workers who can build them.

The housing shortage has "little to nothing to do with the surge of immigration," Zandi says.

• A lot of immigrants are living with family members and friends, he points out. They may be taking some of the housing stock, but it's marginal.

For the record: Karoline Leavitt, Trump's campaign national press secretary, said that Trump would "bring down mortgage rates, and make purchasing a home dramatically more affordable. He will … stop the unsustainable invasion of illegal aliens which is driving up housing costs" and "free up appropriate portions of federal land for housing."

The bottom line: This is a big, complicated crisis, long in the making, that's going to be hard to tackle for any president.

• Much of the zoning and regulatory issues that folks say holds back building are local and state problems — not things that can easily be solved from the White House.
• The housing shortage has been a generation in the making, Zandi says. It might take just as long to get out of it.