What it would take for Gina Hinojosa to win the Texas governor's race
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Gina Hinojosa at an October event in Cypress. Photo: Danielle Villasana/Getty Images
Democrat Gina Hinojosa faces an uphill battle to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott, but political experts say economic pressures and a shifting political climate could create an opportunity.
Why it matters: The race will test whether frustration with Republican leadership is enough to shift voting patterns in a state where Democrats have struggled in statewide elections for decades.
- Hinojosa has risen in polls in recent months and the race is now within the margin of error.
The turnout challenge
Matthew Wilson, a Southern Methodist University political scientist, tells Axios the final stretch of the campaign is more about mobilizing supporters than changing voters' minds.
- "It is probably at this stage easier to mobilize someone who is not that fired up about voting than it is to actually change someone's mind," Wilson says.
Yes, but: Hinojosa has been critical of Abbott's policies on data centers and Flock license plate readers — issues that could potentially resonate with voters beyond the Democratic base.
The political opening
Alvaro Corral, a University of Texas Rio Grande Valley political scientist, tells Axios rising costs, particularly gasoline in car-dependent South Texas, has helped Hinojosa frame the election as a referendum on Republican leadership.
- Texas voters rank political corruption as a top concern, and Hinojosa has paired higher costs with what she calls the "Greg Abbott corruption tax" — doing the bidding of "monied interests," she says.
The other side: "The governor is always focused on the issues Texans care about most. He's focused on slashing property taxes; lowering the costs of energy, housing, auto and home insurance; and making college more affordable," Abbott campaign spokesperson Eduardo Leal tells Axios.
The Latino vote
Hinojosa's Brownsville upbringing is helping her connect with Hispanic voters in South Texas, Corral says.
- "She's making no secret about being a child of the Rio Grande Valley, being from the Rio Grande Valley, and folks around here take pride in that," he says.
- Her appeal comes as Latinos are shifting away from the Republican Party after having voted in large numbers for President Trump in 2024.
The coattails
Democrat James Talarico is drawing large crowds and has raised record amounts of money in his U.S. Senate bid.
- Hinojosa could benefit from that Democratic enthusiasm, including potential support from moderate suburban voters dissatisfied with Talarico's Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, Corral and Wilson say.
- To win, Hinojosa says, she has to appeal to disaffected MAGA voters.
The money gap
Abbott's financial advantage remains substantial.
- Abbott spent $281 million from Hinojosa's entry into the race through Oct. 24, compared with her $36.8 million, per the Texas Tribune.
- "There are still a decent number of voters in Texas who don't really know who Gina Hinojosa is," Wilson says.
The bottom line: Corral said Democrats would need numerous factors to align to break their three-decade statewide losing streak.
- "Everything needs to go their way. Everything, everything, everything," he says.