Poll: Democrats hold slight edge in Texas races
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Texas Democrats are for the first time polling slightly ahead of Republicans in several down-ballot statewide races, according to the final University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll ahead of the November election.
Why it matters: Republicans in Texas have dominated statewide elections for more than three decades, but the latest poll suggests Democrats are competitive in races beyond the closely watched U.S. Senate contest.
Driving the news: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico maintains a slim lead, 50%-47%, over Republican Ken Paxton, and most voters appear to have made up their minds.
- 91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters said they were not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds.
- The survey of 861 likely Texas voters in that contest has a margin of error of 3.34%.
What they're saying: "We're clearly in the most competitive cycle that we've seen in the state in a long time," Texas Politics Project director Jim Henson tells Axios.
- More than half of Democrats (53%) said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 37% of Republicans.
- "One shouldn't conclude that means Democrats are going to win all those those races," Henson adds. "It means that Democrats are benefiting … in particular this poll, from this gap in enthusiasm."
The big picture: The poll of registered voters was conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 5 amid a costly advertising battle over Texas' U.S. Senate seat. In just 17 days last month, Texas PAC spent a staggering $131 million on ads and other activities to boost Paxton.
Zoom in: The poll also found Democrats holding narrow leads in other statewide contests:
- In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 48%.
- Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49% to 46%.
- Democrat Nathan Johnson leads Republican Mayes Middleton 48% to 47% in the attorney general's race.
- All are within the margin of error.
Between the lines: The tight down-ballot races reflect party loyalty more than enthusiasm for individual candidates, Henson says.
- Many voters have little familiarity with the candidates but are expressing preferences along party lines when prompted to choose.
- For example, in the comptroller race, most voters have neutral or no opinion of Republican Don Huffines or Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, despite the race being nearly tied in the poll.
- "In these down-ballot races, we're picking up a lot of blunt force party allegiance and party mobilization," Henson says.
Flashback: The final UT/Texas Politics Project polls before the last three U.S. Senate elections in Texas were within 3 points of the final outcome.
- In the October 2024 poll, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by 8 points. Cruz won the election by 8.5 points.
The bottom line: All six statewide contests surveyed are within the poll's reported margin of error, meaning there's no statistically clear leader.
- Henson cautions that polls aren't predictions of election results and that even small changes in turnout could change the outcome.