2 Virginia congressional races draw $1.1M in election bets
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Two Richmond-area congressional races are dominating Virginia's election betting markets, drawing more than $1.1 million in trading activity ahead of next week's midterms.
Why it matters: The Republican-held 1st and 5th Districts could help decide control of the U.S. House. Bettors see Democrats flipping one of them.
By the numbers: The two races have attracted the most trading activity among Virginia's congressional contests on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.
- 5th District: Roughly $696,000 has been traded on the race between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello, with McGuire given at least a 66% chance of winning.
- 1st District: Nearly $496,000 has been traded on Republican Rep. Rob Wittman's race against Democrat and Henrico's Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, with Taylor having up to a 65% chance of flipping the seat.
The intrigue: Bettors are even more confident that Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans will lose her 2nd District seat to Democrat Elaine Luria in their rematch.
- Luria has a roughly 90% chance of winning on both platforms, which have recorded another $343,000 in trading activity on that race.
Meanwhile: Prediction markets also favor Democrats to take control of Congress, which could come down to Virginia.
- Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats at least a 90% chance of taking the House and roughly 65% odds of winning the Senate as of Monday.
Stunning stat: More than $165 million has been traded on House control across Kalshi and Polymarket and $99 million bet on the Senate among both platforms.
Reality check: These markets aren't crystal balls. They reflect bettors' expectations at a given moment, and the odds can shift dramatically.
- Last year, Virginia's attorney general race flipped in favor of Jason Miyares after the Jay Jones scandal.
- Over $5.4 million was wagered. Jones won anyway.